Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for TSA checkpoint throughput below 3.0 million passengers on April 4, 2026, driven by the latest official data showing subdued volumes amid Easter weekend demand: April 2 recorded 2.71 million travelers (down 10% year-over-year), April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged just 2.15 million, reflecting lingering disruptions from the recent DHS shutdown that caused widespread cancellations (339 on April 4) and delays, deterring last-minute spring break trips despite Airlines for America projections of 2.8 million daily averages. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores caution on peak surges, though a realistic upset could stem from resolved TSA staffing boosting unexpected late-day volumes or favorable weather spurring impulse travel before Easter Sunday. Official release expected April 5.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКоличество пассажиров TSA 4 апреля?
Количество пассажиров TSA 4 апреля?
<3,0 млн 99.3%
3,0М–3,2М 1.0%
3,2M-3,4M <1%
3,4–3,6 млн <1%
$11,763 Объем
$11,763 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
<3,0 млн
99%
3,0М–3,2М
1%
3,2M-3,4M
<1%
3,4–3,6 млн
<1%
3,6–3,8 млн
<1%
>3,8 млн
<1%
<3,0 млн 99.3%
3,0М–3,2М 1.0%
3,2M-3,4M <1%
3,4–3,6 млн <1%
$11,763 Объем
$11,763 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
<3,0 млн
$3,176 Объем
99%
3,0М–3,2М
$340 Объем
1%
3,2M-3,4M
$1,959 Объем
<1%
3,4–3,6 млн
$2,222 Объем
<1%
3,6–3,8 млн
$1,987 Объем
<1%
>3,8 млн
$2,080 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for TSA checkpoint throughput below 3.0 million passengers on April 4, 2026, driven by the latest official data showing subdued volumes amid Easter weekend demand: April 2 recorded 2.71 million travelers (down 10% year-over-year), April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged just 2.15 million, reflecting lingering disruptions from the recent DHS shutdown that caused widespread cancellations (339 on April 4) and delays, deterring last-minute spring break trips despite Airlines for America projections of 2.8 million daily averages. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores caution on peak surges, though a realistic upset could stem from resolved TSA staffing boosting unexpected late-day volumes or favorable weather spurring impulse travel before Easter Sunday. Official release expected April 5.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
Объем
$11,763Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for TSA checkpoint throughput below 3.0 million passengers on April 4, 2026, driven by the latest official data showing subdued volumes amid Easter weekend demand: April 2 recorded 2.71 million travelers (down 10% year-over-year), April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged just 2.15 million, reflecting lingering disruptions from the recent DHS shutdown that caused widespread cancellations (339 on April 4) and delays, deterring last-minute spring break trips despite Airlines for America projections of 2.8 million daily averages. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores caution on peak surges, though a realistic upset could stem from resolved TSA staffing boosting unexpected late-day volumes or favorable weather spurring impulse travel before Easter Sunday. Official release expected April 5.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Объем
$11,763Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for TSA checkpoint throughput below 3.0 million passengers on April 4, 2026, driven by the latest official data showing subdued volumes amid Easter weekend demand: April 2 recorded 2.71 million travelers (down 10% year-over-year), April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged just 2.15 million, reflecting lingering disruptions from the recent DHS shutdown that caused widespread cancellations (339 on April 4) and delays, deterring last-minute spring break trips despite Airlines for America projections of 2.8 million daily averages. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores caution on peak surges, though a realistic upset could stem from resolved TSA staffing boosting unexpected late-day volumes or favorable weather spurring impulse travel before Easter Sunday. Official release expected April 5.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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