Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding 64.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the trader consensus favorite to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush and incumbency advantages including stronger cash-on-hand as of early 2026. The March 31 filing deadline confirmed this anticipated rematch, with Bush at 30% leveraging her progressive record on issues like Medicare for All and Gaza ceasefire calls while criticizing Bell's ties to corporate donors and pro-Israel groups like AIPAC that backed him previously. Absent recent polls, traders weigh Bell's established path-to-victory in the plurality-Black district against Bush's comeback bid amid ongoing campaign contrasts over local funding and foreign policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУэсли Белл
65%
Кори Буш
30%
Уэсли Белл
65%
Кори Буш
30%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding 64.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the trader consensus favorite to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush and incumbency advantages including stronger cash-on-hand as of early 2026. The March 31 filing deadline confirmed this anticipated rematch, with Bush at 30% leveraging her progressive record on issues like Medicare for All and Gaza ceasefire calls while criticizing Bell's ties to corporate donors and pro-Israel groups like AIPAC that backed him previously. Absent recent polls, traders weigh Bell's established path-to-victory in the plurality-Black district against Bush's comeback bid amid ongoing campaign contrasts over local funding and foreign policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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