Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability for Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant position in this solidly Republican district rated Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Republican by Cook Political Report as of March 12. Comer, first elected in 2016, boasts over $3.3 million cash on hand post-filing deadline on January 9, dwarfing GOP primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby, while sole Democratic nominee Drew Williams holds under $9,000. With the GOP primary on May 19 approaching amid steady forecaster ratings and no recent polling shifts, an upset would require a primary defeat, Comer's unexpected retirement amid 2027 gubernatorial speculation, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave—scenarios facing steep structural barriers in this R+24 partisan lean district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоKY-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
KY-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
92%
Демократическая партия
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$5,727 Объем
92%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability for Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant position in this solidly Republican district rated Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Republican by Cook Political Report as of March 12. Comer, first elected in 2016, boasts over $3.3 million cash on hand post-filing deadline on January 9, dwarfing GOP primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby, while sole Democratic nominee Drew Williams holds under $9,000. With the GOP primary on May 19 approaching amid steady forecaster ratings and no recent polling shifts, an upset would require a primary defeat, Comer's unexpected retirement amid 2027 gubernatorial speculation, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave—scenarios facing steep structural barriers in this R+24 partisan lean district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$5,727Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability for Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant position in this solidly Republican district rated Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Republican by Cook Political Report as of March 12. Comer, first elected in 2016, boasts over $3.3 million cash on hand post-filing deadline on January 9, dwarfing GOP primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby, while sole Democratic nominee Drew Williams holds under $9,000. With the GOP primary on May 19 approaching amid steady forecaster ratings and no recent polling shifts, an upset would require a primary defeat, Comer's unexpected retirement amid 2027 gubernatorial speculation, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave—scenarios facing steep structural barriers in this R+24 partisan lean district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$5,727Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability for Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. James Comer's dominant position in this solidly Republican district rated Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Republican by Cook Political Report as of March 12. Comer, first elected in 2016, boasts over $3.3 million cash on hand post-filing deadline on January 9, dwarfing GOP primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby, while sole Democratic nominee Drew Williams holds under $9,000. With the GOP primary on May 19 approaching amid steady forecaster ratings and no recent polling shifts, an upset would require a primary defeat, Comer's unexpected retirement amid 2027 gubernatorial speculation, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave—scenarios facing steep structural barriers in this R+24 partisan lean district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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