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Выборы·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Market icon
Выборы·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

НОВОЕ
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Демократическая партия

$1,560 Объем

85%

Республиканская партия

$3,652 Объем

13%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85% implied probability in the CA-45 House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the district's partisan lean from D+1.5 to D+3 or D+4 under new maps. The March 6 filing deadline certified a crowded five-candidate Republican primary field—Mark Leonard, Chi Charlie Nguyen, Amy Phan West, Chuong Vo, and Thomas Vo—against Tran as the lone Democrat, likely advancing him easily in California's top-two system ahead of the June 2 primary. Tran's $2.3 million cash-on-hand dwarfs GOP rivals, aligning with Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections as of mid-March. Midterm dynamics and fundraising edge reinforce his incumbency advantage from the narrow 2024 flip.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$5,212
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85% implied probability in the CA-45 House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the district's partisan lean from D+1.5 to D+3 or D+4 under new maps. The March 6 filing deadline certified a crowded five-candidate Republican primary field—Mark Leonard, Chi Charlie Nguyen, Amy Phan West, Chuong Vo, and Thomas Vo—against Tran as the lone Democrat, likely advancing him easily in California's top-two system ahead of the June 2 primary. Tran's $2.3 million cash-on-hand dwarfs GOP rivals, aligning with Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections as of mid-March. Midterm dynamics and fundraising edge reinforce his incumbency advantage from the narrow 2024 flip.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$5,212
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Демократическая партия» с 85%, за ним следует «Республиканская партия» с 13%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 85¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 85%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jan 28, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Демократическая партия» с 85%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 85%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Республиканская партия» с 13%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.