MetService's latest forecast, issued March 28, projects a maximum temperature of 19°C at Wellington International Airport— the market's resolution site—under cloudy skies with afternoon rain and strengthening northerlies. Yet trader consensus leans toward 20°C at 33.5% implied probability, edging out 19°C at 24% and 18°C at 18.5%, driven by persistent northerly winds advecting warmer maritime air and potential for fine breaks boosting solar insolation, as seen yesterday when March 28 peaked at 22°C despite a 20°C forecast. This tight clustering reflects inherent short-range forecast uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary layer mixing, with NIWA seasonal outlooks supporting above-average March temperatures around 20°C historically. Hourly MetService updates today could sharpen odds before tomorrow's resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on March 29?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 29?
20°C 34%
19°C 25%
18°C 19%
21°C 16%
$135,480 Объем
$135,480 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
19%
19°C
25%
20°C
34%
21°C
16%
22°C
6%
23°C or higher
2%
20°C 34%
19°C 25%
18°C 19%
21°C 16%
$135,480 Объем
$135,480 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
19%
19°C
25%
20°C
34%
21°C
16%
22°C
6%
23°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest forecast, issued March 28, projects a maximum temperature of 19°C at Wellington International Airport— the market's resolution site—under cloudy skies with afternoon rain and strengthening northerlies. Yet trader consensus leans toward 20°C at 33.5% implied probability, edging out 19°C at 24% and 18°C at 18.5%, driven by persistent northerly winds advecting warmer maritime air and potential for fine breaks boosting solar insolation, as seen yesterday when March 28 peaked at 22°C despite a 20°C forecast. This tight clustering reflects inherent short-range forecast uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary layer mixing, with NIWA seasonal outlooks supporting above-average March temperatures around 20°C historically. Hourly MetService updates today could sharpen odds before tomorrow's resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы