Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued at 11:00 JST on March 28, projects Tokyo's daytime high near 19°C under mostly cloudy skies with occasional clears and 20% precipitation risk—above the late-March climatological norm of 16.5°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection. Yet Polymarket's trader consensus, wagering real capital, heavily favors 18°C at 82.5% implied probability, with 19°C trailing at 10.7%, reflecting uncertainty from variable cloud cover limiting insolation and peak afternoon heating, plus historical tendencies for models to slightly overestimate short-range highs. Morning observations already exceed 15°C thresholds, pricing lower outcomes near zero; hourly station data through evening will clarify resolution per official JMA measurements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?
18°C 80%
19°C 15.8%
20°C 3.4%
21°C or higher 1.5%
$126,297 Объем
$126,297 Объем
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
80%
19°C
16%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
18°C 80%
19°C 15.8%
20°C 3.4%
21°C or higher 1.5%
$126,297 Объем
$126,297 Объем
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
80%
19°C
16%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued at 11:00 JST on March 28, projects Tokyo's daytime high near 19°C under mostly cloudy skies with occasional clears and 20% precipitation risk—above the late-March climatological norm of 16.5°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection. Yet Polymarket's trader consensus, wagering real capital, heavily favors 18°C at 82.5% implied probability, with 19°C trailing at 10.7%, reflecting uncertainty from variable cloud cover limiting insolation and peak afternoon heating, plus historical tendencies for models to slightly overestimate short-range highs. Morning observations already exceed 15°C thresholds, pricing lower outcomes near zero; hourly station data through evening will clarify resolution per official JMA measurements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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