Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Chicago high temperature of 70-71°F on March 20, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and converging NOAA GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak warmth under a persistent high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild Gulf of Mexico air. This aligns with verified short-range guidance showing surface dewpoints in the 50s°F and ample insolation, far above the late-March climatological average of 48°F at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution station. Supporting evidence includes recent soundings confirming stable warm advection, with minimal cloud interference expected. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated cold frontal passage or increased low-level clouds capping temps below 70°F, or excessive clear skies and downslope effects pushing toward 72°F+, though model ensembles assign low probability to deviations exceeding 2°F.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$263,928 Объем
$263,928 Объем
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$263,928 Объем
$263,928 Объем
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Chicago high temperature of 70-71°F on March 20, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and converging NOAA GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak warmth under a persistent high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild Gulf of Mexico air. This aligns with verified short-range guidance showing surface dewpoints in the 50s°F and ample insolation, far above the late-March climatological average of 48°F at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution station. Supporting evidence includes recent soundings confirming stable warm advection, with minimal cloud interference expected. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated cold frontal passage or increased low-level clouds capping temps below 70°F, or excessive clear skies and downslope effects pushing toward 72°F+, though model ensembles assign low probability to deviations exceeding 2°F.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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