Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on daytime peaks around 21°C amid southerly winds at 5–10 mph advecting mild air masses. Morning observations near 11°C (52°F) at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—are rising under hazy sunshine and a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, exceeding the late-March climatological average of 16°C while amplified by urban heat island effects. Recent 48-hour refinements lowered prior expectations for 22°C+ as subtle cooling from increasing afternoon clouds emerged in model runs. Realistic challenges include faster overcast development or isolated showers reducing solar insolation, potentially capping highs at 20°C; track hourly airport data through peak afternoon heating.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
21°C 95.5%
22°C 2.5%
23°C 1.0%
24°C <1%
$97,743 Объем
$97,743 Объем
Mar 28, 2026
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
96%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 95.5%
22°C 2.5%
23°C 1.0%
24°C <1%
$97,743 Объем
$97,743 Объем
Mar 28, 2026
19°C
$9,344 Объем
<1%
20°C
$9,892 Объем
<1%
21°C
$7,591 Объем
96%
22°C
$7,322 Объем
3%
23°C
$9,215 Объем
1%
24°C
$5,301 Объем
1%
25°C
$4,189 Объем
<1%
26°C or higher
$8,310 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on daytime peaks around 21°C amid southerly winds at 5–10 mph advecting mild air masses. Morning observations near 11°C (52°F) at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—are rising under hazy sunshine and a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, exceeding the late-March climatological average of 16°C while amplified by urban heat island effects. Recent 48-hour refinements lowered prior expectations for 22°C+ as subtle cooling from increasing afternoon clouds emerged in model runs. Realistic challenges include faster overcast development or isolated showers reducing solar insolation, potentially capping highs at 20°C; track hourly airport data through peak afternoon heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Объем
$97,743Дата окончания
Mar 28, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Окно спора
Окончательный
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on daytime peaks around 21°C amid southerly winds at 5–10 mph advecting mild air masses. Morning observations near 11°C (52°F) at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—are rising under hazy sunshine and a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, exceeding the late-March climatological average of 16°C while amplified by urban heat island effects. Recent 48-hour refinements lowered prior expectations for 22°C+ as subtle cooling from increasing afternoon clouds emerged in model runs. Realistic challenges include faster overcast development or isolated showers reducing solar insolation, potentially capping highs at 20°C; track hourly airport data through peak afternoon heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$97,743Дата окончания
Mar 28, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Окно спора
Окончательный
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on daytime peaks around 21°C amid southerly winds at 5–10 mph advecting mild air masses. Morning observations near 11°C (52°F) at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—are rising under hazy sunshine and a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, exceeding the late-March climatological average of 16°C while amplified by urban heat island effects. Recent 48-hour refinements lowered prior expectations for 22°C+ as subtle cooling from increasing afternoon clouds emerged in model runs. Realistic challenges include faster overcast development or isolated showers reducing solar insolation, potentially capping highs at 20°C; track hourly airport data through peak afternoon heating.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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