Recent redistricting approved in May 2026 created an open FL-22 seat spanning parts of Palm Beach, Broward, Collier, and Hendry counties, transforming the contest after Democrat Pia Dandiya shifted her campaign from the neighboring district. Both candidates secured their nominations in the August primaries, with Dandiya winning decisively and Republican Casey Askar prevailing in a crowded field. Multiple independent ratings moved the race to toss-up status in late September and early October amid mixed polling that shows narrow margins or ties. Substantial outside spending, including a major Democratic advertising push, combined with the district’s split partisan history—supporting Biden in 2020 but Trump by double digits in 2024—has kept the race competitive and sustained the current trader consensus on a tight outcome.