Polymarket traders price a fragmented outlook for China's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the highest market-implied probability at 21.6% for -0.9% to -0.5% amid closely contested odds across deflationary and near-zero bins, reflecting uncertainty over sustained demand weakness. February 2026 CPI surged 1.3% year-over-year—the highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year holiday spending, while core CPI hit 1.8%; however, persistent PPI deflation at -0.9% and a negative output gap signal producer overcapacity and tepid consumption dragging the full-year average lower. Beijing's "around 2%" target highlights policy ambitions, but efficacy of recent stimulus remains unproven. Key swing factors include forthcoming March CPI (early April release) and Q1 GDP data, alongside global commodity pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоГодовая инфляция в Китае в 2026 году
Годовая инфляция в Китае в 2026 году
2,5%+ 19.2%
-0,9 – -0,5% 15.6%
-0,4 – 0,0% 14.7%
1,6–2,0% 13.5%
$30,269 Объем
$30,269 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
<-1,0%
17%
-0,9 – -0,5%
22%
-0,4 – 0,0%
15%
0,1 – 0,5%
13%
0,6–1,0%
11%
1,1 – 1,5%
7%
1,6–2,0%
14%
2,0-2,4%
5%
2,5%+
13%
2,5%+ 19.2%
-0,9 – -0,5% 15.6%
-0,4 – 0,0% 14.7%
1,6–2,0% 13.5%
$30,269 Объем
$30,269 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
<-1,0%
$16,679 Объем
17%
-0,9 – -0,5%
$1,640 Объем
22%
-0,4 – 0,0%
$1,711 Объем
15%
0,1 – 0,5%
$1,531 Объем
13%
0,6–1,0%
$1,488 Объем
11%
1,1 – 1,5%
$1,896 Объем
7%
1,6–2,0%
$2,381 Объем
14%
2,0-2,4%
$1,485 Объем
5%
2,5%+
$1,458 Объем
13%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price a fragmented outlook for China's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the highest market-implied probability at 21.6% for -0.9% to -0.5% amid closely contested odds across deflationary and near-zero bins, reflecting uncertainty over sustained demand weakness. February 2026 CPI surged 1.3% year-over-year—the highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year holiday spending, while core CPI hit 1.8%; however, persistent PPI deflation at -0.9% and a negative output gap signal producer overcapacity and tepid consumption dragging the full-year average lower. Beijing's "around 2%" target highlights policy ambitions, but efficacy of recent stimulus remains unproven. Key swing factors include forthcoming March CPI (early April release) and Q1 GDP data, alongside global commodity pressures.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Объем
$30,269Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price a fragmented outlook for China's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the highest market-implied probability at 21.6% for -0.9% to -0.5% amid closely contested odds across deflationary and near-zero bins, reflecting uncertainty over sustained demand weakness. February 2026 CPI surged 1.3% year-over-year—the highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year holiday spending, while core CPI hit 1.8%; however, persistent PPI deflation at -0.9% and a negative output gap signal producer overcapacity and tepid consumption dragging the full-year average lower. Beijing's "around 2%" target highlights policy ambitions, but efficacy of recent stimulus remains unproven. Key swing factors include forthcoming March CPI (early April release) and Q1 GDP data, alongside global commodity pressures.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Объем
$30,269Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a fragmented outlook for China's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the highest market-implied probability at 21.6% for -0.9% to -0.5% amid closely contested odds across deflationary and near-zero bins, reflecting uncertainty over sustained demand weakness. February 2026 CPI surged 1.3% year-over-year—the highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year holiday spending, while core CPI hit 1.8%; however, persistent PPI deflation at -0.9% and a negative output gap signal producer overcapacity and tepid consumption dragging the full-year average lower. Beijing's "around 2%" target highlights policy ambitions, but efficacy of recent stimulus remains unproven. Key swing factors include forthcoming March CPI (early April release) and Q1 GDP data, alongside global commodity pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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