California's 14th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic voter base and historical margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, which underpins trader expectations for a Democratic winner in both the June special primary and subsequent general election. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations created an open seat and triggered overlapping primaries on June 2 and June 16, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Republican candidates remain limited in a district where the partisan lean and top-two format favor Democratic advancement. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, late scandals involving leading Democratic candidates, or court rulings altering ballot access before the August special general.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$26,525 Объем
$26,525 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$26,525 Объем
$26,525 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$8,560 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$17,966 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic voter base and historical margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, which underpins trader expectations for a Democratic winner in both the June special primary and subsequent general election. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations created an open seat and triggered overlapping primaries on June 2 and June 16, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Republican candidates remain limited in a district where the partisan lean and top-two format favor Democratic advancement. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, late scandals involving leading Democratic candidates, or court rulings altering ballot access before the August special general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$26,525Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic voter base and historical margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, which underpins trader expectations for a Democratic winner in both the June special primary and subsequent general election. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations created an open seat and triggered overlapping primaries on June 2 and June 16, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Republican candidates remain limited in a district where the partisan lean and top-two format favor Democratic advancement. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, late scandals involving leading Democratic candidates, or court rulings altering ballot access before the August special general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$26,525Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic voter base and historical margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, which underpins trader expectations for a Democratic winner in both the June special primary and subsequent general election. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations created an open seat and triggered overlapping primaries on June 2 and June 16, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Republican candidates remain limited in a district where the partisan lean and top-two format favor Democratic advancement. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, late scandals involving leading Democratic candidates, or court rulings altering ballot access before the August special general.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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