California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a June 2 top-two primary and August 18 special election, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state senator Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh while limiting Republican options to lower-profile candidates. Low GOP fundraising, limited crossover appeal in the Bay Area electorate, and historical precedent sustain the lopsided positioning. A Republican primary breakthrough or late Democratic scandal could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable given structural factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$26,525 Объем
$26,525 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$26,525 Объем
$26,525 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$8,560 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$17,966 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a June 2 top-two primary and August 18 special election, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state senator Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh while limiting Republican options to lower-profile candidates. Low GOP fundraising, limited crossover appeal in the Bay Area electorate, and historical precedent sustain the lopsided positioning. A Republican primary breakthrough or late Democratic scandal could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable given structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$26,525Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a June 2 top-two primary and August 18 special election, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state senator Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh while limiting Republican options to lower-profile candidates. Low GOP fundraising, limited crossover appeal in the Bay Area electorate, and historical precedent sustain the lopsided positioning. A Republican primary breakthrough or late Democratic scandal could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable given structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$26,525Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a June 2 top-two primary and August 18 special election, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state senator Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh while limiting Republican options to lower-profile candidates. Low GOP fundraising, limited crossover appeal in the Bay Area electorate, and historical precedent sustain the lopsided positioning. A Republican primary breakthrough or late Democratic scandal could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable given structural factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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