Trader consensus prices the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by redistricting that shifted the district from Republican-leaning under old boundaries to a 55D-44R partisan tilt, incorporating Democratic-leaning Sonoma County areas. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's February entry, backed by California Democratic Party and Yurok Tribe endorsements, bolsters his frontrunner status against term-limited Assemblyman James Gallagher and agriculture consultant Audrey Denney in the top-two primary aftermath. A late February poll showed McGuire leading Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters for the full term. Potential challenges include Republican vote consolidation sending a unified GOP nominee to the general, superior Republican turnout in this rural northern California battleground, or unexpected McGuire scandals ahead of election night vote counts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$13,784 Объем
$13,784 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
5%
$13,784 Объем
$13,784 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$13,784 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by redistricting that shifted the district from Republican-leaning under old boundaries to a 55D-44R partisan tilt, incorporating Democratic-leaning Sonoma County areas. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's February entry, backed by California Democratic Party and Yurok Tribe endorsements, bolsters his frontrunner status against term-limited Assemblyman James Gallagher and agriculture consultant Audrey Denney in the top-two primary aftermath. A late February poll showed McGuire leading Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters for the full term. Potential challenges include Republican vote consolidation sending a unified GOP nominee to the general, superior Republican turnout in this rural northern California battleground, or unexpected McGuire scandals ahead of election night vote counts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$13,784Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by redistricting that shifted the district from Republican-leaning under old boundaries to a 55D-44R partisan tilt, incorporating Democratic-leaning Sonoma County areas. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's February entry, backed by California Democratic Party and Yurok Tribe endorsements, bolsters his frontrunner status against term-limited Assemblyman James Gallagher and agriculture consultant Audrey Denney in the top-two primary aftermath. A late February poll showed McGuire leading Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters for the full term. Potential challenges include Republican vote consolidation sending a unified GOP nominee to the general, superior Republican turnout in this rural northern California battleground, or unexpected McGuire scandals ahead of election night vote counts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$13,784Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by redistricting that shifted the district from Republican-leaning under old boundaries to a 55D-44R partisan tilt, incorporating Democratic-leaning Sonoma County areas. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's February entry, backed by California Democratic Party and Yurok Tribe endorsements, bolsters his frontrunner status against term-limited Assemblyman James Gallagher and agriculture consultant Audrey Denney in the top-two primary aftermath. A late February poll showed McGuire leading Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters for the full term. Potential challenges include Republican vote consolidation sending a unified GOP nominee to the general, superior Republican turnout in this rural northern California battleground, or unexpected McGuire scandals ahead of election night vote counts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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