Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, aligning with central bank and BBVA Research annual forecasts near 1.6%–1.7% amid post-2025 deceleration. IBGE's March 3 release confirmed 2025 GDP expanded just 2.3%—weakest since 2020—due to prior 15% Selic rate constraining demand, with Q4 QoQ at a meager 0.1%. Recent catalysts include the central bank's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%, easing from two-year highs as IPCA inflation cooled (March mid-month +0.44% MoM); resilient January-February industrial output (+1.8% MoM each), retail sales (+0.4% MoM), and low unemployment (5.8% through February). Upcoming March data and May's Q1 IBGE release could shift pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.5%–1.8% 59%
2.3%–2.6% 20%
<0.7% 11.2%
1.1%–1.4% 8%
$15,063 Объем
$15,063 Объем
29 мая 2026 г.
<0.7%
11%
0.7%–1.0%
16%
1.1%–1.4%
22%
1.5%–1.8%
62%
1.9%–2.2%
20%
2.3%–2.6%
20%
≥2.7%
12%
1.5%–1.8% 59%
2.3%–2.6% 20%
<0.7% 11.2%
1.1%–1.4% 8%
$15,063 Объем
$15,063 Объем
29 мая 2026 г.
<0.7%
$13,311 Объем
11%
0.7%–1.0%
$32 Объем
16%
1.1%–1.4%
$45 Объем
22%
1.5%–1.8%
$367 Объем
62%
1.9%–2.2%
$90 Объем
20%
2.3%–2.6%
$32 Объем
20%
≥2.7%
$1,187 Объем
12%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, aligning with central bank and BBVA Research annual forecasts near 1.6%–1.7% amid post-2025 deceleration. IBGE's March 3 release confirmed 2025 GDP expanded just 2.3%—weakest since 2020—due to prior 15% Selic rate constraining demand, with Q4 QoQ at a meager 0.1%. Recent catalysts include the central bank's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%, easing from two-year highs as IPCA inflation cooled (March mid-month +0.44% MoM); resilient January-February industrial output (+1.8% MoM each), retail sales (+0.4% MoM), and low unemployment (5.8% through February). Upcoming March data and May's Q1 IBGE release could shift pricing.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Объем
$15,063Дата окончания
29 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, aligning with central bank and BBVA Research annual forecasts near 1.6%–1.7% amid post-2025 deceleration. IBGE's March 3 release confirmed 2025 GDP expanded just 2.3%—weakest since 2020—due to prior 15% Selic rate constraining demand, with Q4 QoQ at a meager 0.1%. Recent catalysts include the central bank's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%, easing from two-year highs as IPCA inflation cooled (March mid-month +0.44% MoM); resilient January-February industrial output (+1.8% MoM each), retail sales (+0.4% MoM), and low unemployment (5.8% through February). Upcoming March data and May's Q1 IBGE release could shift pricing.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$15,063Дата окончания
29 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, aligning with central bank and BBVA Research annual forecasts near 1.6%–1.7% amid post-2025 deceleration. IBGE's March 3 release confirmed 2025 GDP expanded just 2.3%—weakest since 2020—due to prior 15% Selic rate constraining demand, with Q4 QoQ at a meager 0.1%. Recent catalysts include the central bank's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%, easing from two-year highs as IPCA inflation cooled (March mid-month +0.44% MoM); resilient January-February industrial output (+1.8% MoM each), retail sales (+0.4% MoM), and low unemployment (5.8% through February). Upcoming March data and May's Q1 IBGE release could shift pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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