The March 31, 2026, deadline for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has passed without any military action across the Taiwan Strait, solidifying trader consensus at 100% "No" probability. This reflects the U.S. intelligence community's March 18 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plans for invasion—even into 2027—preferring non-military coercion like gray-zone tactics amid ongoing PLA exercises. High confidence stems from massive logistical barriers to amphibious assault, U.S. deterrence through arms sales and alliances, and China's economic interdependence vulnerabilities. Realistic shifts would require late-emerging evidence of covert action before the deadline, though none has surfaced.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoA China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de março de 2026?
A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de março de 2026?
Sim
$10,607,442 Vol.
$10,607,442 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Sim
$10,607,442 Vol.
$10,607,442 Vol.
31 mar 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The March 31, 2026, deadline for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has passed without any military action across the Taiwan Strait, solidifying trader consensus at 100% "No" probability. This reflects the U.S. intelligence community's March 18 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plans for invasion—even into 2027—preferring non-military coercion like gray-zone tactics amid ongoing PLA exercises. High confidence stems from massive logistical barriers to amphibious assault, U.S. deterrence through arms sales and alliances, and China's economic interdependence vulnerabilities. Realistic shifts would require late-emerging evidence of covert action before the deadline, though none has surfaced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 24, 2025, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$10,607,442Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The March 31, 2026, deadline for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has passed without any military action across the Taiwan Strait, solidifying trader consensus at 100% "No" probability. This reflects the U.S. intelligence community's March 18 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plans for invasion—even into 2027—preferring non-military coercion like gray-zone tactics amid ongoing PLA exercises. High confidence stems from massive logistical barriers to amphibious assault, U.S. deterrence through arms sales and alliances, and China's economic interdependence vulnerabilities. Realistic shifts would require late-emerging evidence of covert action before the deadline, though none has surfaced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,607,442Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The March 31, 2026, deadline for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has passed without any military action across the Taiwan Strait, solidifying trader consensus at 100% "No" probability. This reflects the U.S. intelligence community's March 18 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plans for invasion—even into 2027—preferring non-military coercion like gray-zone tactics amid ongoing PLA exercises. High confidence stems from massive logistical barriers to amphibious assault, U.S. deterrence through arms sales and alliances, and China's economic interdependence vulnerabilities. Realistic shifts would require late-emerging evidence of covert action before the deadline, though none has surfaced.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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