California's top-two primary system for the 2026 gubernatorial election, set for March 3, 2026, will send the top two vote-getters to November's general regardless of party, with Democrats' 46% registration edge making a Dem sweep likely absent a GOP surge. A UC Berkeley poll from mid-October showed U.S. Rep. Katie Porter leading at 15% among likely voters, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis close at 14%, Republican Steve Garvey at 12%, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond at 9%, highlighting a fragmented field vulnerable to fundraising shifts and endorsements. No major candidate announcements or events have occurred in the past 30 days, but early money reports due January 31 could clarify frontrunners, while national political winds post-2024 may influence voter turnout in this low-salience race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$186,890 Vol.
Elaine Culotti
94%
Eric Swalwell
72%
Steve Hilton
57%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
28%
Katie Porter
25%
Matt Mahan
20%
Ché Ahn
11%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Betty Yee
6%
Tony Thurmond
6%
Ethan Agarwal
5%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Sharifah Hardie
4%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
12%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Raji Rab
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Kyle Langford
2%
Butch Ware
2%
Thunder Parley
2%
Ramsey Robinson
1%
Brandon Jones
1%
Zoltan Istvan
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
David Thelen
1%
Sophia Brink
1%
$186,890 Vol.
Elaine Culotti
94%
Eric Swalwell
72%
Steve Hilton
57%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
28%
Katie Porter
25%
Matt Mahan
20%
Ché Ahn
11%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Betty Yee
6%
Tony Thurmond
6%
Ethan Agarwal
5%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Sharifah Hardie
4%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
12%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Raji Rab
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Kyle Langford
2%
Butch Ware
2%
Thunder Parley
2%
Ramsey Robinson
1%
Brandon Jones
1%
Zoltan Istvan
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
David Thelen
1%
Sophia Brink
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...California's top-two primary system for the 2026 gubernatorial election, set for March 3, 2026, will send the top two vote-getters to November's general regardless of party, with Democrats' 46% registration edge making a Dem sweep likely absent a GOP surge. A UC Berkeley poll from mid-October showed U.S. Rep. Katie Porter leading at 15% among likely voters, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis close at 14%, Republican Steve Garvey at 12%, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond at 9%, highlighting a fragmented field vulnerable to fundraising shifts and endorsements. No major candidate announcements or events have occurred in the past 30 days, but early money reports due January 31 could clarify frontrunners, while national political winds post-2024 may influence voter turnout in this low-salience race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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