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Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Qual partido vence as eleições presidenciais de 2028 nos EUA?

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Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Qual partido vence as eleições presidenciais de 2028 nos EUA?

$1,526,564 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,526,564 Vol.

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Democrata

$661,104 Vol.

57%

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Republicano

$865,461 Vol.

43%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, reflecting an open-seat contest after President Trump's 2024 victory and constitutional ineligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment. Recent plunges in Trump's approval ratings to a second-term low of 36%—driven by surging fuel prices amid Iran tensions and broader economic pressures—have boosted Democratic odds, signaling historical midterm headwinds for the incumbent party ahead of November 2026 contests that could reshape battleground momentum. Early polls show Vice President JD Vance leading the GOP primary field and California Governor Gavin Newsom topping Democrats, keeping the race closely contested with swing state dynamics and primary turnout pivotal.

Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, reflecting an open-seat contest after President Trump's 2024 victory and constitutional ineligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment. Recent plunges in Trump's approval ratings to a second-term low of 36%—driven by surging fuel prices amid Iran tensions and broader economic pressures—have boosted Democratic odds, signaling historical midterm headwinds for the incumbent party ahead of November 2026 contests that could reshape battleground momentum. Early polls show Vice President JD Vance leading the GOP primary field and California Governor Gavin Newsom topping Democrats, keeping the race closely contested with swing state dynamics and primary turnout pivotal.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, reflecting an open-seat contest after President Trump's 2024 victory and constitutional ineligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment. Recent plunges in Trump's approval ratings to a second-term low of 36%—driven by surging fuel prices amid Iran tensions and broader economic pressures—have boosted Democratic odds, signaling historical midterm headwinds for the incumbent party ahead of November 2026 contests that could reshape battleground momentum. Early polls show Vice President JD Vance leading the GOP primary field and California Governor Gavin Newsom topping Democrats, keeping the race closely contested with swing state dynamics and primary turnout pivotal.

Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, reflecting an open-seat contest after President Trump's 2024 victory and constitutional ineligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment. Recent plunges in Trump's approval ratings to a second-term low of 36%—driven by surging fuel prices amid Iran tensions and broader economic pressures—have boosted Democratic odds, signaling historical midterm headwinds for the incumbent party ahead of November 2026 contests that could reshape battleground momentum. Early polls show Vice President JD Vance leading the GOP primary field and California Governor Gavin Newsom topping Democrats, keeping the race closely contested with swing state dynamics and primary turnout pivotal.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual partido vence as eleições presidenciais de 2028 nos EUA?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democrata" at 57%, followed by "Republicano" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual partido vence as eleições presidenciais de 2028 nos EUA?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual partido vence as eleições presidenciais de 2028 nos EUA?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual partido vence as eleições presidenciais de 2028 nos EUA?" is "Democrata" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republicano" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual partido vence as eleições presidenciais de 2028 nos EUA?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.