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Viktor Orbán até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

Market icon

Viktor Orbán até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

Sim

72% acaso
Polymarket

$75,899 Vol.

Sim

72% acaso
Polymarket

$75,899 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent independent polls released in early April, including Závecz Research and 21 Kutatóközpont surveys from late March, show Hungary's opposition Tisza party—led by Péter Magyar—widening its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz to 13-19 points among decided voters, up from prior margins, fueling 71.5% trader odds of Orbán exiting office by year-end. This surge reflects voter frustration with corruption scandals, delayed EU funds, and Orbán's EU vetoes on Ukraine aid, unifying previously fragmented opposition amid low election trust per Gallup data. Hungary's electoral system, with single-member districts and plurality bonuses favoring incumbents, tempers Fidesz's risks, but 20-26% undecided voters and intimidation allegations heighten uncertainty for the April 12 parliamentary vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,899
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent independent polls released in early April, including Závecz Research and 21 Kutatóközpont surveys from late March, show Hungary's opposition Tisza party—led by Péter Magyar—widening its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz to 13-19 points among decided voters, up from prior margins, fueling 71.5% trader odds of Orbán exiting office by year-end. This surge reflects voter frustration with corruption scandals, delayed EU funds, and Orbán's EU vetoes on Ukraine aid, unifying previously fragmented opposition amid low election trust per Gallup data. Hungary's electoral system, with single-member districts and plurality bonuses favoring incumbents, tempers Fidesz's risks, but 20-26% undecided voters and intimidation allegations heighten uncertainty for the April 12 parliamentary vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,899
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Viktor Orbán até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Viktor Orbán fora até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Viktor Orbán até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" has generated $75.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Viktor Orbán até 31 de dezembro de 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Viktor Orbán até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" is "Viktor Orbán fora até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Viktor Orbán até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.