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Mundo·Médio Oriente

Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Mundo·Médio Oriente

Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?

Sim

7% acaso
Polymarket

$191,997 Vol.

Sim

7% acaso
Polymarket

$191,997 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by President Masoud Pezeshkian's ongoing term from his 2024 victory, which extends through 2028 absent a vacancy. The recent assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 prompted an Assembly of Experts vote March 3–8 to select a successor—reportedly Mojtaba Khamenei—shifting focus to stabilizing the supreme leadership amid a power vacuum and a three-man transitional council. Escalating military tensions, including U.S. airstrikes and President Trump's April warnings of intensified action, further prioritize conflict response over electoral processes. Constitutional snap election rules require a presidential death or incapacity to trigger a 50-day vote, with no such developments confirmed; late-breaking health events or regime shifts remain low-probability catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$191,997
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by President Masoud Pezeshkian's ongoing term from his 2024 victory, which extends through 2028 absent a vacancy. The recent assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 prompted an Assembly of Experts vote March 3–8 to select a successor—reportedly Mojtaba Khamenei—shifting focus to stabilizing the supreme leadership amid a power vacuum and a three-man transitional council. Escalating military tensions, including U.S. airstrikes and President Trump's April warnings of intensified action, further prioritize conflict response over electoral processes. Constitutional snap election rules require a presidential death or incapacity to trigger a 50-day vote, with no such developments confirmed; late-breaking health events or regime shifts remain low-probability catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$191,997
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até 30 de junho?" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?" has generated $192K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?" is "O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até 30 de junho?" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.