Market icon
Eleições·Primárias

SC-01 Vencedor da primária republicana

Market icon
Eleições·Primárias

SC-01 Vencedor da primária republicana

Mark Smith 28%

Alex Pelbath 26%

Sam McCown 15%

Jack Ellison 4.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

Mark Smith 28%

Alex Pelbath 26%

Sam McCown 15%

Jack Ellison 4.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

Mark Smith

$1,410 Vol.

36%

Alex Pelbath

$1,366 Vol.

26%

Sam McCown

$964 Vol.

16%

Jack Ellison

$503 Vol.

4%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

$446 Vol.

4%

Jay Byars

$355 Vol.

21%

Justin Myers

$529 Vol.

1%

Logan Cunningham

$664 Vol.

1%

Dan Brown

$357 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open SC-01 Republican primary set for June 9, trader consensus slightly favors state Rep. Mark Smith at 36% implied probability, buoyed by his $513,000 cash-on-hand lead as of late 2025 and name recognition from a strong 2022 challenge to Rep. Nancy Mace, who vacated for the gubernatorial race. Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath trails closely at 28% on his high-profile Afghanistan evacuation story, while Dorchester Councilman Jay Byars holds 22% via local conservative appeal. The fragmented 10-candidate field keeps odds tight amid no public polls post-March 30 filing deadline and former Rep. Mark Sanford's late entry; separation likely hinges on endorsements, Q1 fundraising disclosures, debates, and turnout among lowcountry GOP voters, potentially forcing a June 23 runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$6,595
Data de Término
9 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open SC-01 Republican primary set for June 9, trader consensus slightly favors state Rep. Mark Smith at 36% implied probability, buoyed by his $513,000 cash-on-hand lead as of late 2025 and name recognition from a strong 2022 challenge to Rep. Nancy Mace, who vacated for the gubernatorial race. Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath trails closely at 28% on his high-profile Afghanistan evacuation story, while Dorchester Councilman Jay Byars holds 22% via local conservative appeal. The fragmented 10-candidate field keeps odds tight amid no public polls post-March 30 filing deadline and former Rep. Mark Sanford's late entry; separation likely hinges on endorsements, Q1 fundraising disclosures, debates, and turnout among lowcountry GOP voters, potentially forcing a June 23 runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$6,595
Data de Término
9 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"SC-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Smith" at 36%, followed by "Alex Pelbath" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"SC-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "SC-01 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SC-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Mark Smith" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Pelbath" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SC-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.