Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$464,151,024 Vol.

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$464,151,024 Vol.

Market icon

JD Vance

$9,029,954 Vol.

18%

Market icon

Gavin Newsom

$6,615,430 Vol.

17%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$5,219,867 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,273,326 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Jon Ossoff

$2,865,561 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$8,944,013 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Kamala Harris

$6,402,946 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,284,250 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,352,225 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,430,862 Vol.

2%

Market icon

JB Pritzker

$8,858,094 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$5,721,068 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,528,796 Vol.

1%

Market icon

James Talarico

$3,688,340 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Andy Beshear

$14,865,044 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$3,929,522 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jamie Dimon

$6,997,211 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michelle Obama

$13,138,438 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$21,592,754 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$7,381,903 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$31,231,893 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wes Moore

$5,479,920 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$8,279,043 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$20,687,083 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ro Khanna

$5,373,944 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$3,215,527 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$27,024,298 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tim Walz

$38,232,816 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$19,568,816 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Stephen Smith

$27,978,704 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,617,833 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Zohran Mamdani

$15,941,240 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$4,658,021 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$28,319,973 Vol.

1%

Market icon

LeBron James

$42,025,076 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$1,402,272 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors Vice President JD Vance at 18.1% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.5% in a fragmented field reflecting the race's early, speculative nature over two years out. Recent polls show Newsom surging in New Hampshire Democratic primary standings and dominating Kamala Harris in California, bolstering his frontrunner status among Democrats, while Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid Democratic attacks portraying him as arrogant and fallout from President Trump's Iran policy and rising 55% disapproval rating. The tight contest persists due to untested national profiles and uncertainty over 2026 midterms, party primaries, and Trump administration performance on economy and foreign policy, any of which could create separation through endorsements, scandals, or shifts in polling averages.

Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors Vice President JD Vance at 18.1% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.5% in a fragmented field reflecting the race's early, speculative nature over two years out. Recent polls show Newsom surging in New Hampshire Democratic primary standings and dominating Kamala Harris in California, bolstering his frontrunner status among Democrats, while Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid Democratic attacks portraying him as arrogant and fallout from President Trump's Iran policy and rising 55% disapproval rating. The tight contest persists due to untested national profiles and uncertainty over 2026 midterms, party primaries, and Trump administration performance on economy and foreign policy, any of which could create separation through endorsements, scandals, or shifts in polling averages.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors Vice President JD Vance at 18.1% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.5% in a fragmented field reflecting the race's early, speculative nature over two years out. Recent polls show Newsom surging in New Hampshire Democratic primary standings and dominating Kamala Harris in California, bolstering his frontrunner status among Democrats, while Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid Democratic attacks portraying him as arrogant and fallout from President Trump's Iran policy and rising 55% disapproval rating. The tight contest persists due to untested national profiles and uncertainty over 2026 midterms, party primaries, and Trump administration performance on economy and foreign policy, any of which could create separation through endorsements, scandals, or shifts in polling averages.

Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors Vice President JD Vance at 18.1% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.5% in a fragmented field reflecting the race's early, speculative nature over two years out. Recent polls show Newsom surging in New Hampshire Democratic primary standings and dominating Kamala Harris in California, bolstering his frontrunner status among Democrats, while Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid Democratic attacks portraying him as arrogant and fallout from President Trump's Iran policy and rising 55% disapproval rating. The tight contest persists due to untested national profiles and uncertainty over 2026 midterms, party primaries, and Trump administration performance on economy and foreign policy, any of which could create separation through endorsements, scandals, or shifts in polling averages.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" has generated $464.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.