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Política·Coreia Do Sul

Eleições locais sul-coreanas de 2026: vencedor do partido

Market icon
Política·Coreia Do Sul

Eleições locais sul-coreanas de 2026: vencedor do partido

Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP) 95.4%

Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP) 2.5%

Partido Progressista (PP) <1%

Partido da Reforma (RP) <1%

Polymarket

$2,070,859 Vol.

Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP) 95.4%

Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP) 2.5%

Partido Progressista (PP) <1%

Partido da Reforma (RP) <1%

Polymarket

$2,070,859 Vol.

Market icon

Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP)

$435,752 Vol.

95%

Market icon

Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP)

$989,834 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Partido Progressista (PP)

$282,236 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Partido da Reforma (RP)

$129,782 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Partido Reconstruindo a Coreia (RKP)

$233,256 Vol.

<1%

South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces: Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.President Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party of Korea commands overwhelming trader consensus at 95.4% implied probability to win the most seats in the June 3, 2026, local elections, driven by sustained poll leads in key races like Seoul and Busan mayoral contests and ruling party approval surging amid economic stabilization efforts. The opposition People Power Party languishes at 2.4% following its 2024 parliamentary drubbing, former President Yoon Suk-yeol's 2025 removal for martial law declaration, and his February 2026 life sentence for insurrection, which has triggered candidate shortages and internal disarray. Recent surveys show DP at 65% versus PPP's 20% nationally, with 40% undecided voters from January now consolidating behind incumbents. Upsets would require a major DP scandal, economic shock, or Yoon loyalist resurgence, though historical local election trends favor the sitting president's party.

South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:

Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong

Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.

A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Volume
$2,070,859
Data de Término
3 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces: Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces: Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.President Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party of Korea commands overwhelming trader consensus at 95.4% implied probability to win the most seats in the June 3, 2026, local elections, driven by sustained poll leads in key races like Seoul and Busan mayoral contests and ruling party approval surging amid economic stabilization efforts. The opposition People Power Party languishes at 2.4% following its 2024 parliamentary drubbing, former President Yoon Suk-yeol's 2025 removal for martial law declaration, and his February 2026 life sentence for insurrection, which has triggered candidate shortages and internal disarray. Recent surveys show DP at 65% versus PPP's 20% nationally, with 40% undecided voters from January now consolidating behind incumbents. Upsets would require a major DP scandal, economic shock, or Yoon loyalist resurgence, though historical local election trends favor the sitting president's party.

South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:

Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong

Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.

A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Volume
$2,070,859
Data de Término
3 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces: Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleições locais sul-coreanas de 2026: vencedor do partido" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP)" at 95%, followed by "Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP)" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleições locais sul-coreanas de 2026: vencedor do partido" has generated $2.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleições locais sul-coreanas de 2026: vencedor do partido," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleições locais sul-coreanas de 2026: vencedor do partido" is "Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP)" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP)" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleições locais sul-coreanas de 2026: vencedor do partido" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.