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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$484,527,987 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$484,527,987 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,619,944 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$8,267,048 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,473,819 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,546,014 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,113,329 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,660,623 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,606,612 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,407,002 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,686,211 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,498,501 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,963,676 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,004,618 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,455,461 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,754,553 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,865,744 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,418,767 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,204,120 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,875,376 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,183,960 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,372,032 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,526,839 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,801,850 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,635,616 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,986,495 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,479,794 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,229,252 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,768,629 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,997,816 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,653,434 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,428,416 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,679,191 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,576,833 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,595,737 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,266,410 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,371,513 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,555,480 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting early positioning in a fragmented field amid Trump's second term. Vance's edge stems from his CPAC straw poll dominance (53%) last week, recent appearance at a conservative donor summit, and announcement of a new book—moves signaling 2028 ambitions—bolstered by incumbency as the GOP frontrunner in Republican surveys. Newsom gains from Democratic primary polls showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in California and tying for second in New Hampshire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's surge ties to his high-profile role in Iran negotiations, fueling GOP speculation. With primaries over a year away and 2026 midterms looming, scandals, economic performance, or foreign policy outcomes could widen gaps in this closely contested race.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$484,527,987
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting early positioning in a fragmented field amid Trump's second term. Vance's edge stems from his CPAC straw poll dominance (53%) last week, recent appearance at a conservative donor summit, and announcement of a new book—moves signaling 2028 ambitions—bolstered by incumbency as the GOP frontrunner in Republican surveys. Newsom gains from Democratic primary polls showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in California and tying for second in New Hampshire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's surge ties to his high-profile role in Iran negotiations, fueling GOP speculation. With primaries over a year away and 2026 midterms looming, scandals, economic performance, or foreign policy outcomes could widen gaps in this closely contested race.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$484,527,987
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" has generated $484.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.