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Política·GELO

OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Market icon
Política·GELO

OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Derek Merrin 48%

Jacob Frost 18.3%

Madison Sheahan 16%

Alea Nadeem 10.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Derek Merrin 48%

Jacob Frost 18.3%

Madison Sheahan 16%

Alea Nadeem 10.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Derek Merrin

$0 Vol.

65%

Jacob Frost

$0 Vol.

18%

Madison Sheahan

$1,631 Vol.

16%

Alea Nadeem

$0 Vol.

11%

Anthony Campbell

$0 Vol.

3%

Wayne Kinsel

$0 Vol.

9%

Josh Williams

$0 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 57.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his strong fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—name recognition from a narrow 2024 general election loss to incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur, and local experience as former Ohio state representative and Waterville mayor. Jacob Frost follows at 30.4%, reflecting sustained bettor interest amid a crowded field despite limited public polling. Madison Sheahan's 15.5% share gained from a March 17 endorsement by Maggie's List, though her recent move prompted Lucas County GOP to impose a one-year residency rule for endorsements in late January. Josh Williams benefits from state House Majority Whip role and Q4 fundraising lead, while the redrawn district's Republican lean heightens stakes for the nominee's general election path.

Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 57.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his strong fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—name recognition from a narrow 2024 general election loss to incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur, and local experience as former Ohio state representative and Waterville mayor. Jacob Frost follows at 30.4%, reflecting sustained bettor interest amid a crowded field despite limited public polling. Madison Sheahan's 15.5% share gained from a March 17 endorsement by Maggie's List, though her recent move prompted Lucas County GOP to impose a one-year residency rule for endorsements in late January. Josh Williams benefits from state House Majority Whip role and Q4 fundraising lead, while the redrawn district's Republican lean heightens stakes for the nominee's general election path.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 57.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his strong fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—name recognition from a narrow 2024 general election loss to incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur, and local experience as former Ohio state representative and Waterville mayor. Jacob Frost follows at 30.4%, reflecting sustained bettor interest amid a crowded field despite limited public polling. Madison Sheahan's 15.5% share gained from a March 17 endorsement by Maggie's List, though her recent move prompted Lucas County GOP to impose a one-year residency rule for endorsements in late January. Josh Williams benefits from state House Majority Whip role and Q4 fundraising lead, while the redrawn district's Republican lean heightens stakes for the nominee's general election path.

Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 57.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his strong fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—name recognition from a narrow 2024 general election loss to incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur, and local experience as former Ohio state representative and Waterville mayor. Jacob Frost follows at 30.4%, reflecting sustained bettor interest amid a crowded field despite limited public polling. Madison Sheahan's 15.5% share gained from a March 17 endorsement by Maggie's List, though her recent move prompted Lucas County GOP to impose a one-year residency rule for endorsements in late January. Josh Williams benefits from state House Majority Whip role and Q4 fundraising lead, while the redrawn district's Republican lean heightens stakes for the nominee's general election path.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Derek Merrin" at 65%, followed by "Josh Williams" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Derek Merrin" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Josh Williams" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.