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Eleições·Gronelândia

O próximo primeiro-ministro da Dinamarca?

Market icon
Eleições·Gronelândia

O próximo primeiro-ministro da Dinamarca?

Mette Frederiksen 93%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen 6.3%

Troels Lund Poulsen 1.6%

Alex Vanopslagh <1%

Polymarket

$3,865,697 Vol.

Mette Frederiksen 93%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen 6.3%

Troels Lund Poulsen 1.6%

Alex Vanopslagh <1%

Polymarket

$3,865,697 Vol.

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Mette Frederiksen

$1,001,199 Vol.

93%

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Lars Løkke Rasmussen

$1,077,227 Vol.

6%

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Troels Lund Poulsen

$620,626 Vol.

2%

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Alex Vanopslagh

$620,415 Vol.

<1%

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Mona Juul

$86,842 Vol.

<1%

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Morten Messerschmidt

$172,388 Vol.

<1%

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Lars Boje Mathiesen

$75,740 Vol.

<1%

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Inger Støjberg

$20,960 Vol.

<1%

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Martin Lidegaard

$31,698 Vol.

<1%

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Pia Olsen Dyhr

$117,807 Vol.

<1%

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Pelle Dragsted

$44,696 Vol.

<1%

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to remain Denmark's next prime minister, driven by her Social Democrats' sustained lead in recent opinion polls and the stability of her center-left minority government in the Folketing, which relies on supply-and-support agreements with centrist and left-leaning parties. With the next election not required until October 2026 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion, no major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—such as policy reversals on immigration, green energy, or Ukraine aid—to erode her position. Lars Løkke Rasmussen trails at 6% as the Moderate party leader and former PM, buoyed by his party's rising poll numbers but lacking coalition momentum. Realistic challenges include a sudden government collapse, damaging scandal, or sharp poll reversal favoring right-wing challengers like the Liberals or Danish People's Party.

Incumbent Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to remain Denmark's next prime minister, driven by her Social Democrats' sustained lead in recent opinion polls and the stability of her center-left minority government in the Folketing, which relies on supply-and-support agreements with centrist and left-leaning parties. With the next election not required until October 2026 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion, no major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—such as policy reversals on immigration, green energy, or Ukraine aid—to erode her position. Lars Løkke Rasmussen trails at 6% as the Moderate party leader and former PM, buoyed by his party's rising poll numbers but lacking coalition momentum. Realistic challenges include a sudden government collapse, damaging scandal, or sharp poll reversal favoring right-wing challengers like the Liberals or Danish People's Party.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to remain Denmark's next prime minister, driven by her Social Democrats' sustained lead in recent opinion polls and the stability of her center-left minority government in the Folketing, which relies on supply-and-support agreements with centrist and left-leaning parties. With the next election not required until October 2026 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion, no major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—such as policy reversals on immigration, green energy, or Ukraine aid—to erode her position. Lars Løkke Rasmussen trails at 6% as the Moderate party leader and former PM, buoyed by his party's rising poll numbers but lacking coalition momentum. Realistic challenges include a sudden government collapse, damaging scandal, or sharp poll reversal favoring right-wing challengers like the Liberals or Danish People's Party.

Incumbent Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to remain Denmark's next prime minister, driven by her Social Democrats' sustained lead in recent opinion polls and the stability of her center-left minority government in the Folketing, which relies on supply-and-support agreements with centrist and left-leaning parties. With the next election not required until October 2026 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion, no major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—such as policy reversals on immigration, green energy, or Ukraine aid—to erode her position. Lars Løkke Rasmussen trails at 6% as the Moderate party leader and former PM, buoyed by his party's rising poll numbers but lacking coalition momentum. Realistic challenges include a sudden government collapse, damaging scandal, or sharp poll reversal favoring right-wing challengers like the Liberals or Danish People's Party.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O próximo primeiro-ministro da Dinamarca?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mette Frederiksen" at 93%, followed by "Lars Løkke Rasmussen" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O próximo primeiro-ministro da Dinamarca?" has generated $3.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O próximo primeiro-ministro da Dinamarca?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O próximo primeiro-ministro da Dinamarca?" is "Mette Frederiksen" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lars Løkke Rasmussen" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O próximo primeiro-ministro da Dinamarca?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.