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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 55%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.4%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,743,139 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 55%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.4%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,743,139 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria

$22,262 Vol.

55%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$16,258 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel

$572,787 Vol.

6%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido

$557,561 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão

$276,699 Vol.

3%

Putin - Presidente da Rússia

$350,842 Vol.

2%

Petro - Presidente da Colômbia

$12,796 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia

$11,283 Vol.

1%

Nenhum antes de 2027

$10,160 Vol.

1%

Trump - Presidente dos EUA

$203,958 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente da França

$68,153 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente da Palestina

$58,322 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC

$39,624 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha

$11,319 Vol.

1%

Newsom - Governador da Califórnia

$113,329 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia

$75,740 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França

$40,635 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela

$20,663 Vol.

1%

Milei - Presidente da Argentina

$35,523 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil

$40,102 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidente do México

$64,527 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria

$28,196 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte

$24,997 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Chanceler alemão

$28,784 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália

$58,620 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 54.5%, driven by surging opposition from Péter Magyar's Tisza party, which leads recent polls (e.g., 44% vs. Fidesz's 36% in October Median survey) amid economic discontent, EU fund disputes, and protests over a child abuse pardon scandal, positioning the April 2026 parliamentary election as a tight contest. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5% amid the island's deepening economic collapse, widespread blackouts, suppressed protests, and Hurricane Rafael's October impact fueling speculation of abrupt leadership change despite no near-term elections. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.4% reflects Gaza war prolongation, Hezbollah escalations, and polls showing Benny Gantz ahead if snap elections called before 2026, though his coalition endures. Lower odds for others like UK PM Keir Starmer underscore relative stability.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,743,139
Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 54.5%, driven by surging opposition from Péter Magyar's Tisza party, which leads recent polls (e.g., 44% vs. Fidesz's 36% in October Median survey) amid economic discontent, EU fund disputes, and protests over a child abuse pardon scandal, positioning the April 2026 parliamentary election as a tight contest. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5% amid the island's deepening economic collapse, widespread blackouts, suppressed protests, and Hurricane Rafael's October impact fueling speculation of abrupt leadership change despite no near-term elections. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.4% reflects Gaza war prolongation, Hezbollah escalations, and polls showing Benny Gantz ahead if snap elections called before 2026, though his coalition endures. Lower odds for others like UK PM Keir Starmer underscore relative stability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 54.5%, driven by surging opposition from Péter Magyar's Tisza party, which leads recent polls (e.g., 44% vs. Fidesz's 36% in October Median survey) amid economic discontent, EU fund disputes, and protests over a child abuse pardon scandal, positioning the April 2026 parliamentary election as a tight contest. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5% amid the island's deepening economic collapse, widespread blackouts, suppressed protests, and Hurricane Rafael's October impact fueling speculation of abrupt leadership change despite no near-term elections. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.4% reflects Gaza war prolongation, Hezbollah escalations, and polls showing Benny Gantz ahead if snap elections called before 2026, though his coalition endures. Lower odds for others like UK PM Keir Starmer underscore relative stability.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 55%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.