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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas

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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$20,963,422 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$20,963,422 Vol.

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Jordan Bardella

$585,415 Vol.

25%

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Édouard Philippe

$358,108 Vol.

21%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$208,098 Vol.

10%

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Marine Le Pen

$277,614 Vol.

8%

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Dominique de Villepin

$757,615 Vol.

5%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$415,987 Vol.

4%

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Bruno Retailleau

$850,618 Vol.

4%

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Sarah Knafo

$903,207 Vol.

3%

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François Hollande

$510,717 Vol.

3%

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David Lisnard

$621,765 Vol.

3%

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Gabriel Attal

$785,851 Vol.

3%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$566,046 Vol.

2%

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Jean Castex

$431,865 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$273,134 Vol.

1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,056,919 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$308,255 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$243,635 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$227,690 Vol.

1%

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Fabien Roussel

$786,585 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$250,482 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$307,359 Vol.

1%

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Manuel Bompard

$654,804 Vol.

<1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$229,366 Vol.

<1%

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François Asselineau

$819,335 Vol.

<1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$763,559 Vol.

<1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$715,969 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$408,984 Vol.

<1%

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Olivier Faure

$534,429 Vol.

<1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,041,064 Vol.

<1%

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François Bayrou

$636,665 Vol.

<1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$504,784 Vol.

<1%

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Clémence Guetté

$789,523 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$767,359 Vol.

<1%

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Carole Delga

$663,779 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$718,451 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$989,547 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Polymarket traders price Jordan Bardella at 24.5% and Édouard Philippe at 20.5% to win France's 2027 presidential election, mirroring recent polls like Elabe's December survey where Bardella leads first-round voting intentions 34%-27% amid unrelenting political deadlock. Since President Macron's June snap election yielded a hung National Assembly, Michel Barnier's government collapsed under a no-confidence vote, and François Bayrou's minority administration now faces repeated challenges from left-wing coalitions and National Rally abstentions. This instability amplifies right-wing appeal—Bardella as RN president capitalizing on voter frustration, Philippe as former PM drawing centrist support—while fragmenting the left and undecided Macronist bloc keeps the top contenders neck-and-neck. Breakouts could stem from Bayrou's tenure viability, Marine Le Pen's embezzlement trial verdict, party primaries, or economic pressures ahead of the fixed 2027 timeline.

Polymarket traders price Jordan Bardella at 24.5% and Édouard Philippe at 20.5% to win France's 2027 presidential election, mirroring recent polls like Elabe's December survey where Bardella leads first-round voting intentions 34%-27% amid unrelenting political deadlock. Since President Macron's June snap election yielded a hung National Assembly, Michel Barnier's government collapsed under a no-confidence vote, and François Bayrou's minority administration now faces repeated challenges from left-wing coalitions and National Rally abstentions. This instability amplifies right-wing appeal—Bardella as RN president capitalizing on voter frustration, Philippe as former PM drawing centrist support—while fragmenting the left and undecided Macronist bloc keeps the top contenders neck-and-neck. Breakouts could stem from Bayrou's tenure viability, Marine Le Pen's embezzlement trial verdict, party primaries, or economic pressures ahead of the fixed 2027 timeline.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Polymarket traders price Jordan Bardella at 24.5% and Édouard Philippe at 20.5% to win France's 2027 presidential election, mirroring recent polls like Elabe's December survey where Bardella leads first-round voting intentions 34%-27% amid unrelenting political deadlock. Since President Macron's June snap election yielded a hung National Assembly, Michel Barnier's government collapsed under a no-confidence vote, and François Bayrou's minority administration now faces repeated challenges from left-wing coalitions and National Rally abstentions. This instability amplifies right-wing appeal—Bardella as RN president capitalizing on voter frustration, Philippe as former PM drawing centrist support—while fragmenting the left and undecided Macronist bloc keeps the top contenders neck-and-neck. Breakouts could stem from Bayrou's tenure viability, Marine Le Pen's embezzlement trial verdict, party primaries, or economic pressures ahead of the fixed 2027 timeline.

Polymarket traders price Jordan Bardella at 24.5% and Édouard Philippe at 20.5% to win France's 2027 presidential election, mirroring recent polls like Elabe's December survey where Bardella leads first-round voting intentions 34%-27% amid unrelenting political deadlock. Since President Macron's June snap election yielded a hung National Assembly, Michel Barnier's government collapsed under a no-confidence vote, and François Bayrou's minority administration now faces repeated challenges from left-wing coalitions and National Rally abstentions. This instability amplifies right-wing appeal—Bardella as RN president capitalizing on voter frustration, Philippe as former PM drawing centrist support—while fragmenting the left and undecided Macronist bloc keeps the top contenders neck-and-neck. Breakouts could stem from Bayrou's tenure viability, Marine Le Pen's embezzlement trial verdict, party primaries, or economic pressures ahead of the fixed 2027 timeline.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" has generated $21 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.