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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Globais

Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$21,473,812 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$21,473,812 Vol.

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Jordan Bardella

$587,089 Vol.

25%

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Édouard Philippe

$359,058 Vol.

21%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$208,176 Vol.

10%

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Marine Le Pen

$277,709 Vol.

8%

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Dominique de Villepin

$762,537 Vol.

5%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$419,435 Vol.

4%

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Bruno Retailleau

$855,469 Vol.

4%

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Sarah Knafo

$910,080 Vol.

3%

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François Hollande

$513,535 Vol.

3%

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Gabriel Attal

$788,666 Vol.

3%

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David Lisnard

$624,295 Vol.

3%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$566,753 Vol.

2%

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Jean Castex

$431,982 Vol.

2%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,058,550 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$294,611 Vol.

1%

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Fabien Roussel

$788,154 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$309,628 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$243,939 Vol.

1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$840,034 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$258,335 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$228,240 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$307,868 Vol.

1%

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Manuel Bompard

$659,482 Vol.

<1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$230,264 Vol.

<1%

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François Asselineau

$878,797 Vol.

<1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$764,387 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$409,102 Vol.

<1%

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Olivier Faure

$593,162 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$810,483 Vol.

<1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,081,899 Vol.

<1%

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François Bayrou

$669,574 Vol.

<1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$548,336 Vol.

<1%

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Clémence Guetté

$815,788 Vol.

<1%

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Carole Delga

$669,034 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$720,290 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$991,023 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted National Rally's gains in over 55 towns including Nice, boosting Jordan Bardella's trader consensus at 24.5%, yet left-wing holds in Paris and Marseille alongside centrist alliances checked far-right advances, bolstering Édouard Philippe's 20.5% standing as a unifying center-right figure. Polling averages show Bardella leading first-round intentions near 36% versus Philippe's 16-18%, but fragmented fields—exemplified by Les Républicains' pending April vote on their presidential primary and left divisions between Jean-Luc Mélenchon (9.5%) and Raphaël Glucksmann—fuel runoff uncertainties and potential republican front pacts. Consolidation via nominations or endorsements could widen leads ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted National Rally's gains in over 55 towns including Nice, boosting Jordan Bardella's trader consensus at 24.5%, yet left-wing holds in Paris and Marseille alongside centrist alliances checked far-right advances, bolstering Édouard Philippe's 20.5% standing as a unifying center-right figure. Polling averages show Bardella leading first-round intentions near 36% versus Philippe's 16-18%, but fragmented fields—exemplified by Les Républicains' pending April vote on their presidential primary and left divisions between Jean-Luc Mélenchon (9.5%) and Raphaël Glucksmann—fuel runoff uncertainties and potential republican front pacts. Consolidation via nominations or endorsements could widen leads ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted National Rally's gains in over 55 towns including Nice, boosting Jordan Bardella's trader consensus at 24.5%, yet left-wing holds in Paris and Marseille alongside centrist alliances checked far-right advances, bolstering Édouard Philippe's 20.5% standing as a unifying center-right figure. Polling averages show Bardella leading first-round intentions near 36% versus Philippe's 16-18%, but fragmented fields—exemplified by Les Républicains' pending April vote on their presidential primary and left divisions between Jean-Luc Mélenchon (9.5%) and Raphaël Glucksmann—fuel runoff uncertainties and potential republican front pacts. Consolidation via nominations or endorsements could widen leads ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted National Rally's gains in over 55 towns including Nice, boosting Jordan Bardella's trader consensus at 24.5%, yet left-wing holds in Paris and Marseille alongside centrist alliances checked far-right advances, bolstering Édouard Philippe's 20.5% standing as a unifying center-right figure. Polling averages show Bardella leading first-round intentions near 36% versus Philippe's 16-18%, but fragmented fields—exemplified by Les Républicains' pending April vote on their presidential primary and left divisions between Jean-Luc Mélenchon (9.5%) and Raphaël Glucksmann—fuel runoff uncertainties and potential republican front pacts. Consolidation via nominations or endorsements could widen leads ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" has generated $21.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.