Recent polling averages, including a late October RMG Research survey showing Republican Tim Sheehy ahead of Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by 12 points, have solidified trader consensus at 82% for a Republican Senate win in Montana. Sheehy benefits from strong GOP base turnout in early voting, President Trump's endorsement, superior fundraising, and Tester's challenges on issues like border security and VA wait times in a state that voted Republican by 16 points in 2020. National Republican momentum in Senate races further boosts odds, though undecided voters and rural turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day on November 5.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
82%
Democrata
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
$0 Vol.
82%
Democrata
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages, including a late October RMG Research survey showing Republican Tim Sheehy ahead of Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by 12 points, have solidified trader consensus at 82% for a Republican Senate win in Montana. Sheehy benefits from strong GOP base turnout in early voting, President Trump's endorsement, superior fundraising, and Tester's challenges on issues like border security and VA wait times in a state that voted Republican by 16 points in 2020. National Republican momentum in Senate races further boosts odds, though undecided voters and rural turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day on November 5.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages, including a late October RMG Research survey showing Republican Tim Sheehy ahead of Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by 12 points, have solidified trader consensus at 82% for a Republican Senate win in Montana. Sheehy benefits from strong GOP base turnout in early voting, President Trump's endorsement, superior fundraising, and Tester's challenges on issues like border security and VA wait times in a state that voted Republican by 16 points in 2020. National Republican momentum in Senate races further boosts odds, though undecided voters and rural turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day on November 5.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages, including a late October RMG Research survey showing Republican Tim Sheehy ahead of Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by 12 points, have solidified trader consensus at 82% for a Republican Senate win in Montana. Sheehy benefits from strong GOP base turnout in early voting, President Trump's endorsement, superior fundraising, and Tester's challenges on issues like border security and VA wait times in a state that voted Republican by 16 points in 2020. National Republican momentum in Senate races further boosts odds, though undecided voters and rural turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day on November 5.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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