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Política·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana

Market icon
Política·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana

Julia Letlow 65%

John Fleming 17.6%

Bill Cassidy 13%

Julie Emerson <1%

Polymarket

$169,624 Vol.

Julia Letlow 65%

John Fleming 17.6%

Bill Cassidy 13%

Julie Emerson <1%

Polymarket

$169,624 Vol.

Julia Letlow

$7,894 Vol.

65%

John Fleming

$30,540 Vol.

18%

Bill Cassidy

$26,863 Vol.

13%

Julie Emerson

$32,557 Vol.

<1%

Blake Miguez

$18,462 Vol.

<1%

Samuel “Sammy” Wyatt

$8,937 Vol.

<1%

Randall Arrington

$15,462 Vol.

<1%

Eric Skrmetta

$14,217 Vol.

<1%

Chris Holder

$6,888 Vol.

<1%

Xan John

$7,803 Vol.

<1%

Kathy Seiden

$0 Vol.

<1%

Tracy Dendy

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Julia Letlow leads Polymarket trader consensus at 65% implied probability to win Louisiana's Republican Senate primary on May 16, driven by President Trump's January endorsement urging her to challenge incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy over his 2021 vote to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial, alongside backing from Gov. Jeff Landry and her fundraising edge. Recent polls like American Pulse (March 20-24) show Letlow at 31%, Treasurer John Fleming at 25%, and Cassidy at 21% among likely voters, with both challengers prevailing in simulated runoffs if no candidate exceeds 50%. Escalating attacks in the past week—Cassidy labeling Letlow "liberal" over past DEI comments, while critics highlight Cassidy's DEI votes—have sharpened focus on ideological purity, boosting Letlow's frontrunner status despite a competitive three-way field and Fleming's fresh ethics complaint alleging state resource misuse. A June runoff looms if needed, testing GOP base turnout in this deep-red state.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana.

If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$169,624
Data de Término
16 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Julia Letlow leads Polymarket trader consensus at 65% implied probability to win Louisiana's Republican Senate primary on May 16, driven by President Trump's January endorsement urging her to challenge incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy over his 2021 vote to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial, alongside backing from Gov. Jeff Landry and her fundraising edge. Recent polls like American Pulse (March 20-24) show Letlow at 31%, Treasurer John Fleming at 25%, and Cassidy at 21% among likely voters, with both challengers prevailing in simulated runoffs if no candidate exceeds 50%. Escalating attacks in the past week—Cassidy labeling Letlow "liberal" over past DEI comments, while critics highlight Cassidy's DEI votes—have sharpened focus on ideological purity, boosting Letlow's frontrunner status despite a competitive three-way field and Fleming's fresh ethics complaint alleging state resource misuse. A June runoff looms if needed, testing GOP base turnout in this deep-red state.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana.

If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$169,624
Data de Término
16 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Julia Letlow" at 65%, followed by "John Fleming" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" has generated $169.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" is "Julia Letlow" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Fleming" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.