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Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

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Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

Forças Libanesas (FL) 14%

Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath) 7.3%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.5%

Movimento Amal (Amal) 1.7%

Polymarket

$210,983 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL) 14%

Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath) 7.3%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.5%

Movimento Amal (Amal) 1.7%

Polymarket

$210,983 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL)

$135,428 Vol.

14%

Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath)

$2,967 Vol.

7%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$41,200 Vol.

2%

Movimento Amal (Amal)

$26,786 Vol.

2%

Partido Taqaddom

$0 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$0 Vol.

1%

Associação de Projetos de Caridade Islâmica (ICPA)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimento Dignidade (MD)

$0 Vol.

1%

Federação Revolucionária Armênia (ARF)

$4,602 Vol.

1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$0 Vol.

1%

Partido Socialista Progressista (PSP)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimento de Independência (IM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido da União (UP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Movimento Marada (MM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Organização Nasserista Popular (PNO)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Social-Democrata (Lana)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Aliança Watani (Watani)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Grupo Islâmico (GI)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido do Diálogo Nacional (PDN)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at 14%, followed by "Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath)" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" has generated $211K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath)" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.