Market icon
Política·Uk

Eleição da liderança trabalhista marcada para...?

Market icon
Política·Uk

Eleição da liderança trabalhista marcada para...?

$44,768 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$44,768 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de março

$26,648 Vol.

1%

30 de junho

$14,215 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a UK Labour Party leadership election being scheduled by March 31, 2026, reflecting no challenger securing the 20% MP nominations threshold (around 81 of 405 Labour MPs) amid ongoing internal tensions. Keir Starmer survived a February crisis involving aide resignations and controversy over Peter Mandelson's US ambassador appointment tied to Epstein files, insisting he will lead into the next general election. Recent pressure mounted with Angela Rayner's March 18 speech criticizing party direction and left-wing groups calling for a policy reset, but no formal contest has launched. Upcoming May 7 local elections loom as a pivotal test; poor results could trigger a no-confidence revolt under party rules, explaining 46% odds for scheduling by June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$44,768
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a UK Labour Party leadership election being scheduled by March 31, 2026, reflecting no challenger securing the 20% MP nominations threshold (around 81 of 405 Labour MPs) amid ongoing internal tensions. Keir Starmer survived a February crisis involving aide resignations and controversy over Peter Mandelson's US ambassador appointment tied to Epstein files, insisting he will lead into the next general election. Recent pressure mounted with Angela Rayner's March 18 speech criticizing party direction and left-wing groups calling for a policy reset, but no formal contest has launched. Upcoming May 7 local elections loom as a pivotal test; poor results could trigger a no-confidence revolt under party rules, explaining 46% odds for scheduling by June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$44,768
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição da liderança trabalhista marcada para...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho" at 39%, followed by "31 de março" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição da liderança trabalhista marcada para...?" has generated $44.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição da liderança trabalhista marcada para...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição da liderança trabalhista marcada para...?" is "30 de junho" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de março" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição da liderança trabalhista marcada para...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.