Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February, trader consensus prices a low 26-31% chance of Iranian forces directly striking or seizing a commercial ship on March 31, reflecting uncertainty over a reported early-morning drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai that sparked a fire but awaits explicit IRGC claim or confirmation of Iranian territorial origin to qualify under market rules excluding proxies like Houthis. Probabilities peak at 18% for April 5 amid Iran's recent Hormuz blockade easing—allowing 20 oil tankers per President Trump's statements—and signals of potential de-escalation talks, though European officials note Iran urging Houthis for Red Sea reprisals if US actions intensify. Upcoming US strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds rapidly.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO Irão tem como alvo com sucesso o transporte em...?
O Irão tem como alvo com sucesso o transporte em...?
$111,963 Vol.
31 mar 2026
March 29
2%
March 30
91%
March 31
9%
$111,963 Vol.
March 29
$9,272 Vol.
2%
March 30
$18,024 Vol.
91%
March 31
$3,688 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February, trader consensus prices a low 26-31% chance of Iranian forces directly striking or seizing a commercial ship on March 31, reflecting uncertainty over a reported early-morning drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai that sparked a fire but awaits explicit IRGC claim or confirmation of Iranian territorial origin to qualify under market rules excluding proxies like Houthis. Probabilities peak at 18% for April 5 amid Iran's recent Hormuz blockade easing—allowing 20 oil tankers per President Trump's statements—and signals of potential de-escalation talks, though European officials note Iran urging Houthis for Red Sea reprisals if US actions intensify. Upcoming US strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$111,963Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February, trader consensus prices a low 26-31% chance of Iranian forces directly striking or seizing a commercial ship on March 31, reflecting uncertainty over a reported early-morning drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai that sparked a fire but awaits explicit IRGC claim or confirmation of Iranian territorial origin to qualify under market rules excluding proxies like Houthis. Probabilities peak at 18% for April 5 amid Iran's recent Hormuz blockade easing—allowing 20 oil tankers per President Trump's statements—and signals of potential de-escalation talks, though European officials note Iran urging Houthis for Red Sea reprisals if US actions intensify. Upcoming US strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$111,963Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February, trader consensus prices a low 26-31% chance of Iranian forces directly striking or seizing a commercial ship on March 31, reflecting uncertainty over a reported early-morning drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai that sparked a fire but awaits explicit IRGC claim or confirmation of Iranian territorial origin to qualify under market rules excluding proxies like Houthis. Probabilities peak at 18% for April 5 amid Iran's recent Hormuz blockade easing—allowing 20 oil tankers per President Trump's statements—and signals of potential de-escalation talks, though European officials note Iran urging Houthis for Red Sea reprisals if US actions intensify. Upcoming US strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds rapidly.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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