Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?

Sim

14% acaso
Polymarket

$482,634 Vol.

Sim

14% acaso
Polymarket

$482,634 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, petrochemical facilities, and infrastructure in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum for a Strait of Hormuz deal was rejected by Tehran as recently as April 4, with no signs of regime collapse following Supreme Leader Khamenei's March assassination and successor election. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi's high-profile March 28 CPAC speech and April 1 Liberty University address positioned him as a transitional leader, urging no negotiations with the current government, yet the Trump administration has issued no official recognition or endorsement. Traders reflect this stasis in the 86.5% "No" consensus, viewing formal acknowledgment as improbable absent verified leadership shift or diplomatic breakthrough, per historical US caution on premature opposition support.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$482,634
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, petrochemical facilities, and infrastructure in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum for a Strait of Hormuz deal was rejected by Tehran as recently as April 4, with no signs of regime collapse following Supreme Leader Khamenei's March assassination and successor election. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi's high-profile March 28 CPAC speech and April 1 Liberty University address positioned him as a transitional leader, urging no negotiations with the current government, yet the Trump administration has issued no official recognition or endorsement. Traders reflect this stasis in the 86.5% "No" consensus, viewing formal acknowledgment as improbable absent verified leadership shift or diplomatic breakthrough, per historical US caution on premature opposition support.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$482,634
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?" has generated $482.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?" is "Os EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "EUA reconhecem Reza Pahlavi como líder do Irã em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.