Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of authority amid a leadership vacuum following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent reports from early April indicate the IRGC's military council sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and controlling key decisions, with no verified military defections or internal plots despite economic collapse fears and suppressed January protests. Intensified crackdowns, including Basij mobilizations and executions, maintain stability, while US intelligence assesses IRGC hardliners as unlikely to yield power. Absent fractures in IRGC loyalty or post-war unrest escalation, traders see significant barriers to any coup attempt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$345,217 Vol.
$345,217 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$345,217 Vol.
$345,217 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of authority amid a leadership vacuum following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent reports from early April indicate the IRGC's military council sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and controlling key decisions, with no verified military defections or internal plots despite economic collapse fears and suppressed January protests. Intensified crackdowns, including Basij mobilizations and executions, maintain stability, while US intelligence assesses IRGC hardliners as unlikely to yield power. Absent fractures in IRGC loyalty or post-war unrest escalation, traders see significant barriers to any coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$345,217Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of authority amid a leadership vacuum following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent reports from early April indicate the IRGC's military council sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and controlling key decisions, with no verified military defections or internal plots despite economic collapse fears and suppressed January protests. Intensified crackdowns, including Basij mobilizations and executions, maintain stability, while US intelligence assesses IRGC hardliners as unlikely to yield power. Absent fractures in IRGC loyalty or post-war unrest escalation, traders see significant barriers to any coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$345,217Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of authority amid a leadership vacuum following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent reports from early April indicate the IRGC's military council sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and controlling key decisions, with no verified military defections or internal plots despite economic collapse fears and suppressed January protests. Intensified crackdowns, including Basij mobilizations and executions, maintain stability, while US intelligence assesses IRGC hardliners as unlikely to yield power. Absent fractures in IRGC loyalty or post-war unrest escalation, traders see significant barriers to any coup attempt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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