Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's firm control over China's military and Communist Party apparatus, with "No" at 94.5% following the late January 2026 purge of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on corruption and security violation charges, including alleged nuclear secrets leaks. Initial rumors of a thwarted coup attempt around January 18—spread via overseas media and social platforms—quickly dissipated without verification from official sources, framing the episode as an extension of Xi's anti-corruption campaign into his inner circle. No subsequent military unrest, leadership challenges, or factional splits have emerged in the two months since, underscoring institutional stability ahead of 2027; only major scandals or health events could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$110,934 Vol.
$110,934 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$110,934 Vol.
$110,934 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's firm control over China's military and Communist Party apparatus, with "No" at 94.5% following the late January 2026 purge of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on corruption and security violation charges, including alleged nuclear secrets leaks. Initial rumors of a thwarted coup attempt around January 18—spread via overseas media and social platforms—quickly dissipated without verification from official sources, framing the episode as an extension of Xi's anti-corruption campaign into his inner circle. No subsequent military unrest, leadership challenges, or factional splits have emerged in the two months since, underscoring institutional stability ahead of 2027; only major scandals or health events could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$110,934Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's firm control over China's military and Communist Party apparatus, with "No" at 94.5% following the late January 2026 purge of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on corruption and security violation charges, including alleged nuclear secrets leaks. Initial rumors of a thwarted coup attempt around January 18—spread via overseas media and social platforms—quickly dissipated without verification from official sources, framing the episode as an extension of Xi's anti-corruption campaign into his inner circle. No subsequent military unrest, leadership challenges, or factional splits have emerged in the two months since, underscoring institutional stability ahead of 2027; only major scandals or health events could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$110,934Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's firm control over China's military and Communist Party apparatus, with "No" at 94.5% following the late January 2026 purge of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on corruption and security violation charges, including alleged nuclear secrets leaks. Initial rumors of a thwarted coup attempt around January 18—spread via overseas media and social platforms—quickly dissipated without verification from official sources, framing the episode as an extension of Xi's anti-corruption campaign into his inner circle. No subsequent military unrest, leadership challenges, or factional splits have emerged in the two months since, underscoring institutional stability ahead of 2027; only major scandals or health events could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions