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Eleições·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa

Market icon
Eleições·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa

Ashley Hinson 96.1%

Jim Carlin 1.9%

John Berman 1.8%

Joshua Smith <1%

Polymarket

$14,610 Vol.

Ashley Hinson 96.1%

Jim Carlin 1.9%

John Berman 1.8%

Joshua Smith <1%

Polymarket

$14,610 Vol.

Ashley Hinson

$10,822 Vol.

96%

Jim Carlin

$449 Vol.

2%

John Berman

$0 Vol.

2%

Joshua Smith

$3,340 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a commanding lead in the Iowa Republican Senate primary at 96.1% implied probability, driven by her overwhelming fundraising advantage—nearly $5 million cash on hand versus Jim Carlin's $32,000 as of late 2025—along with key endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds, retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, and Sen. Chuck Grassley. Her organizational strength shone in submitting over 15,000 petition signatures in March to secure ballot access, far exceeding requirements, while challengers like Carlin, John Berman, and Joshua Smith lag with minimal resources and traction. With the June 2 primary approaching and no public polls showing competition, trader consensus reflects low upset risk, though a major scandal, health issue, or surprise endorsement shift could alter dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$14,610
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 2:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a commanding lead in the Iowa Republican Senate primary at 96.1% implied probability, driven by her overwhelming fundraising advantage—nearly $5 million cash on hand versus Jim Carlin's $32,000 as of late 2025—along with key endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds, retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, and Sen. Chuck Grassley. Her organizational strength shone in submitting over 15,000 petition signatures in March to secure ballot access, far exceeding requirements, while challengers like Carlin, John Berman, and Joshua Smith lag with minimal resources and traction. With the June 2 primary approaching and no public polls showing competition, trader consensus reflects low upset risk, though a major scandal, health issue, or surprise endorsement shift could alter dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$14,610
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 2:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ashley Hinson" at 96%, followed by "Jim Carlin" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" has generated $14.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" is "Ashley Hinson" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Carlin" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.