Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran through April 30 (52.5%), reflecting a slowdown in verified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz following early-March strikes on up to 17 vessels amid post-February 28 U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran. U.S. forces destroyed Iranian mine-laying boats and missile sites around March 11, crippling naval capabilities and reducing successful hits, while shipping traffic has plummeted via route avoidance, permissions for compliant vessels, or AIS signal shutdowns. Houthi allies have issued Red Sea threats but refrained from attacks for three weeks, signaling de-escalation amid deterrence. Higher bins like 2–3 (12.5%) price potential retaliatory escalation or diplomatic breakdowns before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
<2 47%
2–3 13%
8–9 11%
6–7 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
53%
2–3
13%
4–5
6%
6–7
9%
8–9
11%
10+
9%
<2 47%
2–3 13%
8–9 11%
6–7 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$666 Vol.
53%
2–3
$0 Vol.
13%
4–5
$0 Vol.
6%
6–7
$0 Vol.
9%
8–9
$0 Vol.
11%
10+
$90 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran through April 30 (52.5%), reflecting a slowdown in verified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz following early-March strikes on up to 17 vessels amid post-February 28 U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran. U.S. forces destroyed Iranian mine-laying boats and missile sites around March 11, crippling naval capabilities and reducing successful hits, while shipping traffic has plummeted via route avoidance, permissions for compliant vessels, or AIS signal shutdowns. Houthi allies have issued Red Sea threats but refrained from attacks for three weeks, signaling de-escalation amid deterrence. Higher bins like 2–3 (12.5%) price potential retaliatory escalation or diplomatic breakdowns before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$756Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran through April 30 (52.5%), reflecting a slowdown in verified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz following early-March strikes on up to 17 vessels amid post-February 28 U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran. U.S. forces destroyed Iranian mine-laying boats and missile sites around March 11, crippling naval capabilities and reducing successful hits, while shipping traffic has plummeted via route avoidance, permissions for compliant vessels, or AIS signal shutdowns. Houthi allies have issued Red Sea threats but refrained from attacks for three weeks, signaling de-escalation amid deterrence. Higher bins like 2–3 (12.5%) price potential retaliatory escalation or diplomatic breakdowns before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$756Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran through April 30 (52.5%), reflecting a slowdown in verified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz following early-March strikes on up to 17 vessels amid post-February 28 U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran. U.S. forces destroyed Iranian mine-laying boats and missile sites around March 11, crippling naval capabilities and reducing successful hits, while shipping traffic has plummeted via route avoidance, permissions for compliant vessels, or AIS signal shutdowns. Houthi allies have issued Red Sea threats but refrained from attacks for three weeks, signaling de-escalation amid deterrence. Higher bins like 2–3 (12.5%) price potential retaliatory escalation or diplomatic breakdowns before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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