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Geopolítica·Imigração

Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Imigração

Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

300-400 mil 35%

400-500 mil 23%

200-300 mil 22%

500-600 mil 10%

Polymarket

$19,160 Vol.

300-400 mil 35%

400-500 mil 23%

200-300 mil 22%

500-600 mil 10%

Polymarket

$19,160 Vol.

<200 mil

$0 Vol.

9%

200-300 mil

$3,580 Vol.

22%

300-400 mil

$1,795 Vol.

35%

400-500 mil

$0 Vol.

23%

500-600 mil

$2,395 Vol.

10%

600-700 mil

$0 Vol.

4%

700-800 mil

$0 Vol.

1%

800-900 mil

$8,037 Vol.

4%

900 mil a 1 milhão

$0 Vol.

1%

>1 milhão

$3,353 Vol.

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting ICE's early-year arrest surge to over 1,100 daily amid interior enforcement expansion and 120% officer growth, yet lagging formal removals due to detention capacity limits around 70,000, flight constraints, and data opacity from inconsistent DHS reports exceeding 675,000 cumulatively since 2025. The 400,000-500,000 bin (23%) assumes funding boosts and hiring ramps, while 200,000-300,000 (21.5%) accounts for potential court injunctions or sanctuary city resistance. Recent March developments—DHS leadership changes, subdued mass deportation rhetoric, and no verified Q1 totals—highlight logistical barriers over campaign promises, with budget appropriations and repatriation deals key to shifting odds higher.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting ICE's early-year arrest surge to over 1,100 daily amid interior enforcement expansion and 120% officer growth, yet lagging formal removals due to detention capacity limits around 70,000, flight constraints, and data opacity from inconsistent DHS reports exceeding 675,000 cumulatively since 2025. The 400,000-500,000 bin (23%) assumes funding boosts and hiring ramps, while 200,000-300,000 (21.5%) accounts for potential court injunctions or sanctuary city resistance. Recent March developments—DHS leadership changes, subdued mass deportation rhetoric, and no verified Q1 totals—highlight logistical barriers over campaign promises, with budget appropriations and repatriation deals key to shifting odds higher.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting ICE's early-year arrest surge to over 1,100 daily amid interior enforcement expansion and 120% officer growth, yet lagging formal removals due to detention capacity limits around 70,000, flight constraints, and data opacity from inconsistent DHS reports exceeding 675,000 cumulatively since 2025. The 400,000-500,000 bin (23%) assumes funding boosts and hiring ramps, while 200,000-300,000 (21.5%) accounts for potential court injunctions or sanctuary city resistance. Recent March developments—DHS leadership changes, subdued mass deportation rhetoric, and no verified Q1 totals—highlight logistical barriers over campaign promises, with budget appropriations and repatriation deals key to shifting odds higher.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting ICE's early-year arrest surge to over 1,100 daily amid interior enforcement expansion and 120% officer growth, yet lagging formal removals due to detention capacity limits around 70,000, flight constraints, and data opacity from inconsistent DHS reports exceeding 675,000 cumulatively since 2025. The 400,000-500,000 bin (23%) assumes funding boosts and hiring ramps, while 200,000-300,000 (21.5%) accounts for potential court injunctions or sanctuary city resistance. Recent March developments—DHS leadership changes, subdued mass deportation rhetoric, and no verified Q1 totals—highlight logistical barriers over campaign promises, with budget appropriations and repatriation deals key to shifting odds higher.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "300-400 mil" at 35%, followed by "400-500 mil" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" has generated $19.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" is "300-400 mil" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "400-500 mil" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.