Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 37% implied probability, reflecting logistical constraints on ICE despite President-elect Trump's pledges for the largest operation in history targeting millions. Recent appointments, including Tom Homan as border czar, signal aggressive interior enforcement prioritizing criminals, but historical peaks under prior administrations topped around 400,000 annually amid limited detention capacity (41,000 beds), 20,000 agents, aircraft shortages, and judicial backlogs. Funding battles in Congress, sanctuary city resistance, and potential executive actions like Alien Enemies Act expansions could elevate numbers, while DHS secretary confirmation hearings and FY2026 budget deadlines loom as key catalysts.