Trader consensus centers on 7 countries at 31%, with 8 and 9 close behind, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes in Iran since late February—sparked by joint operations with Israel targeting nuclear sites and leadership—and accelerated AFRICOM counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, nearing 50 this year. Additional actions include January operations in Venezuela against regime targets and Syria against ISIS, plus likely ongoing efforts in Iraq, totaling around five so far per credible reports. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war resolution—Trump signaled wind-down within weeks amid a ticking 60-day War Powers clock—and potential escalation to proxies or new theaters like Yemen resumption. De-escalation via diplomacy could cap at 6-7; fresh attacks or congressional pushback might push toward 10.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoContra quantos países diferentes os EUA conduzirão uma ação militar em 2026?
Contra quantos países diferentes os EUA conduzirão uma ação militar em 2026?
7 31.0%
8 23.5%
9 16.2%
10 12.0%
$722,027 Vol.
$722,027 Vol.
31 dez 2026
6
12%
7
31%
8
24%
9
16%
10
12%
11
4%
12
2%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
4%
7 31.0%
8 23.5%
9 16.2%
10 12.0%
$722,027 Vol.
$722,027 Vol.
31 dez 2026
6
$417,366 Vol.
12%
7
$3,938 Vol.
31%
8
$5,755 Vol.
24%
9
$8,921 Vol.
16%
10
$10,276 Vol.
12%
11
$8,061 Vol.
4%
12
$10,045 Vol.
2%
13
$7,250 Vol.
2%
14
$41,441 Vol.
1%
15+
$49,132 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus centers on 7 countries at 31%, with 8 and 9 close behind, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes in Iran since late February—sparked by joint operations with Israel targeting nuclear sites and leadership—and accelerated AFRICOM counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, nearing 50 this year. Additional actions include January operations in Venezuela against regime targets and Syria against ISIS, plus likely ongoing efforts in Iraq, totaling around five so far per credible reports. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war resolution—Trump signaled wind-down within weeks amid a ticking 60-day War Powers clock—and potential escalation to proxies or new theaters like Yemen resumption. De-escalation via diplomacy could cap at 6-7; fresh attacks or congressional pushback might push toward 10.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$722,027Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus centers on 7 countries at 31%, with 8 and 9 close behind, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes in Iran since late February—sparked by joint operations with Israel targeting nuclear sites and leadership—and accelerated AFRICOM counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, nearing 50 this year. Additional actions include January operations in Venezuela against regime targets and Syria against ISIS, plus likely ongoing efforts in Iraq, totaling around five so far per credible reports. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war resolution—Trump signaled wind-down within weeks amid a ticking 60-day War Powers clock—and potential escalation to proxies or new theaters like Yemen resumption. De-escalation via diplomacy could cap at 6-7; fresh attacks or congressional pushback might push toward 10.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$722,027Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus centers on 7 countries at 31%, with 8 and 9 close behind, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes in Iran since late February—sparked by joint operations with Israel targeting nuclear sites and leadership—and accelerated AFRICOM counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, nearing 50 this year. Additional actions include January operations in Venezuela against regime targets and Syria against ISIS, plus likely ongoing efforts in Iraq, totaling around five so far per credible reports. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war resolution—Trump signaled wind-down within weeks amid a ticking 60-day War Powers clock—and potential escalation to proxies or new theaters like Yemen resumption. De-escalation via diplomacy could cap at 6-7; fresh attacks or congressional pushback might push toward 10.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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