Trader consensus favors 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained operations against established targets like Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, Houthi forces in Yemen, and al-Shabaab in Somalia—four core theaters carried over from prior years—plus two to three new theaters amid President-elect Trump's hawkish signals. Recent developments, including Trump's December statements on potential airstrikes against Mexican drug cartels and warnings to Iran over nuclear escalation, alongside Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth's advocacy for aggressive posture, differentiate 7 from higher outcomes like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%), which anticipate broader involvement in Venezuela, North Korea, or proxy conflicts. Consolidation behind 7 could stem from cabinet confirmation hearings in early 2025 or initial executive actions post-inauguration, while de-escalation rhetoric or diplomatic breakthroughs might shift toward 6 (9%). Ongoing Middle East tensions remain the dominant driver until new directives emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoContra quantos países diferentes os EUA conduzirão uma ação militar em 2026?
Contra quantos países diferentes os EUA conduzirão uma ação militar em 2026?
7 28.9%
9 16.0%
8 13.8%
10 10.2%
$677,290 Vol.
$677,290 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
9%
7
29%
8
14%
9
16%
10
10%
11
5%
12
3%
13
2%
14
2%
15+
7%
7 28.9%
9 16.0%
8 13.8%
10 10.2%
$677,290 Vol.
$677,290 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
$411,528 Vol.
9%
7
$0 Vol.
29%
8
$0 Vol.
14%
9
$8,465 Vol.
16%
10
$10,095 Vol.
10%
11
$0 Vol.
5%
12
$6,927 Vol.
3%
13
$6,837 Vol.
2%
14
$24,870 Vol.
2%
15+
$48,726 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained operations against established targets like Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, Houthi forces in Yemen, and al-Shabaab in Somalia—four core theaters carried over from prior years—plus two to three new theaters amid President-elect Trump's hawkish signals. Recent developments, including Trump's December statements on potential airstrikes against Mexican drug cartels and warnings to Iran over nuclear escalation, alongside Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth's advocacy for aggressive posture, differentiate 7 from higher outcomes like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%), which anticipate broader involvement in Venezuela, North Korea, or proxy conflicts. Consolidation behind 7 could stem from cabinet confirmation hearings in early 2025 or initial executive actions post-inauguration, while de-escalation rhetoric or diplomatic breakthroughs might shift toward 6 (9%). Ongoing Middle East tensions remain the dominant driver until new directives emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$677,290Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained operations against established targets like Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, Houthi forces in Yemen, and al-Shabaab in Somalia—four core theaters carried over from prior years—plus two to three new theaters amid President-elect Trump's hawkish signals. Recent developments, including Trump's December statements on potential airstrikes against Mexican drug cartels and warnings to Iran over nuclear escalation, alongside Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth's advocacy for aggressive posture, differentiate 7 from higher outcomes like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%), which anticipate broader involvement in Venezuela, North Korea, or proxy conflicts. Consolidation behind 7 could stem from cabinet confirmation hearings in early 2025 or initial executive actions post-inauguration, while de-escalation rhetoric or diplomatic breakthroughs might shift toward 6 (9%). Ongoing Middle East tensions remain the dominant driver until new directives emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$677,290Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained operations against established targets like Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, Houthi forces in Yemen, and al-Shabaab in Somalia—four core theaters carried over from prior years—plus two to three new theaters amid President-elect Trump's hawkish signals. Recent developments, including Trump's December statements on potential airstrikes against Mexican drug cartels and warnings to Iran over nuclear escalation, alongside Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth's advocacy for aggressive posture, differentiate 7 from higher outcomes like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%), which anticipate broader involvement in Venezuela, North Korea, or proxy conflicts. Consolidation behind 7 could stem from cabinet confirmation hearings in early 2025 or initial executive actions post-inauguration, while de-escalation rhetoric or diplomatic breakthroughs might shift toward 6 (9%). Ongoing Middle East tensions remain the dominant driver until new directives emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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