Ongoing Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon, including explosions reported as recently as March 26 amid Hezbollah rocket exchanges, anchor trader consensus for sustained multi-front operations into April, with 2 and 3 countries each at 42.5% implied probability. Early March escalation saw Israel target Iranian security sites in Tehran alongside Beirut strikes, while Houthi threats from Yemen and Syrian proxy activities keep ≥4 viable at 40%. The tight race reflects uncertainty in this proxy war: de-escalation via US-mediated diplomacy could drop to ≤1 (34.5%), but fresh Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages on shipping might expand targets, mirroring 2025 patterns of strikes in up to six nations. No major ceasefires are imminent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 25%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
25%
2
43%
3
43%
≥4
41%
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 25%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$0 Vol.
25%
2
$1 Vol.
43%
3
$0 Vol.
43%
≥4
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon, including explosions reported as recently as March 26 amid Hezbollah rocket exchanges, anchor trader consensus for sustained multi-front operations into April, with 2 and 3 countries each at 42.5% implied probability. Early March escalation saw Israel target Iranian security sites in Tehran alongside Beirut strikes, while Houthi threats from Yemen and Syrian proxy activities keep ≥4 viable at 40%. The tight race reflects uncertainty in this proxy war: de-escalation via US-mediated diplomacy could drop to ≤1 (34.5%), but fresh Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages on shipping might expand targets, mirroring 2025 patterns of strikes in up to six nations. No major ceasefires are imminent.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$1Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon, including explosions reported as recently as March 26 amid Hezbollah rocket exchanges, anchor trader consensus for sustained multi-front operations into April, with 2 and 3 countries each at 42.5% implied probability. Early March escalation saw Israel target Iranian security sites in Tehran alongside Beirut strikes, while Houthi threats from Yemen and Syrian proxy activities keep ≥4 viable at 40%. The tight race reflects uncertainty in this proxy war: de-escalation via US-mediated diplomacy could drop to ≤1 (34.5%), but fresh Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages on shipping might expand targets, mirroring 2025 patterns of strikes in up to six nations. No major ceasefires are imminent.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon, including explosions reported as recently as March 26 amid Hezbollah rocket exchanges, anchor trader consensus for sustained multi-front operations into April, with 2 and 3 countries each at 42.5% implied probability. Early March escalation saw Israel target Iranian security sites in Tehran alongside Beirut strikes, while Houthi threats from Yemen and Syrian proxy activities keep ≥4 viable at 40%. The tight race reflects uncertainty in this proxy war: de-escalation via US-mediated diplomacy could drop to ≤1 (34.5%), but fresh Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages on shipping might expand targets, mirroring 2025 patterns of strikes in up to six nations. No major ceasefires are imminent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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