Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoContra quantos países diferentes Israel tomará medidas militares em março?
Contra quantos países diferentes Israel tomará medidas militares em março?
3 100.0%
≤1 <1%
2 <1%
≥4 <1%
$385,574 Vol.
$385,574 Vol.
31 mar 2026
≤1
Não
2
Não
3
Sim
≥4
Não
3 100.0%
≤1 <1%
2 <1%
≥4 <1%
$385,574 Vol.
$385,574 Vol.
31 mar 2026
≤1
$29,186 Vol.
Não
2
$0 Vol.
Não
3
$118,726 Vol.
Sim
≥4
$237,662 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$385,574Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$385,574Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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