Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Ankara's highest temperature on March 28, with implied probabilities clustered around 14–17°C due to a narrow spread in ensemble predictions from ECMWF and GFS, both projecting mild conditions from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia. Recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates show daytime highs stabilizing near seasonal norms (historical March average ~13–15°C), influenced by southerly flows bringing warmer air masses, though cloud cover and diurnal variations introduce ~2–3°C model discrepancies. No major frontal systems are forecast in the next 24 hours, but daily 12Z model runs could refine odds as resolution nears; watch for shifts if upslope winds enhance orographic cooling.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Ancara em 28 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Ancara em 28 de março?
16°C 23%
14°C 21%
15°C 19%
17°C 19%
8°C ou menos
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
11%
14°C
21%
15°C
19%
16°C
23%
17°C
19%
18°C ou mais
10%
16°C 23%
14°C 21%
15°C 19%
17°C 19%
8°C ou menos
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
11%
14°C
21%
15°C
19%
16°C
23%
17°C
19%
18°C ou mais
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Ankara's highest temperature on March 28, with implied probabilities clustered around 14–17°C due to a narrow spread in ensemble predictions from ECMWF and GFS, both projecting mild conditions from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia. Recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates show daytime highs stabilizing near seasonal norms (historical March average ~13–15°C), influenced by southerly flows bringing warmer air masses, though cloud cover and diurnal variations introduce ~2–3°C model discrepancies. No major frontal systems are forecast in the next 24 hours, but daily 12Z model runs could refine odds as resolution nears; watch for shifts if upslope winds enhance orographic cooling.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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