Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led coalition with the SPD maintains a stable Bundestag majority less than a year after his May 2025 inauguration, underpinning the 86% implied probability against his removal before 2027, as ousting him requires a successful constructive no-confidence vote electing an alternative. Recent polls reflect record-low government approval at 15% and Merz's personal rating at 21%, fueled by economic stagnation and backlash to his comments suggesting up to 80% of Syrian refugees could return home within three years—a stance he clarified amid NGO and intra-coalition criticism over the past week. Absent coalition fractures, snap election triggers, or major scandals, traders see limited paths to early leadership change ahead of the 2029 vote.