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Política·Eleições Globais

Eleição presidencial da Colômbia

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Política·Eleições Globais

Eleição presidencial da Colômbia

Iván Cepeda Castro 41%

Paloma Valencia 36.6%

Abelardo de la Espriella 18%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$7,779,591 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 41%

Paloma Valencia 36.6%

Abelardo de la Espriella 18%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$7,779,591 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$433,286 Vol.

41%

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Paloma Valencia

$535,236 Vol.

37%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$534,066 Vol.

18%

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Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,299,026 Vol.

1%

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Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$87,154 Vol.

1%

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Claudia López (IND)

$458,550 Vol.

<1%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,128,031 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$930,304 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$520,115 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$632,797 Vol.

<1%

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Vicky Dávila (IND)

$0 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$498,016 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$410,594 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$288,002 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slim 49.5% implied probability to Candidate M winning Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, with Iván Cepeda Castro close at 41% and Paloma Valencia at 36.8%, capturing a fragmented electorate wary of incumbent President Gustavo Petro's low approval amid economic challenges and security concerns. Recent polls, including Guarumo and Ecoanalítica's March 19-25 survey for El Tiempo showing Cepeda at 37.5% ahead of de la Espriella (20.2%) and Valencia (19.9%), underscore the tight dynamics, while Paloma Valencia's dominant 67% victory in the March 8 center-right coalition primary has boosted her momentum and split the right-wing vote. Upcoming debates and regional turnout in battleground areas like Antioquia and Bogotá could tip the balance toward a likely runoff.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slim 49.5% implied probability to Candidate M winning Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, with Iván Cepeda Castro close at 41% and Paloma Valencia at 36.8%, capturing a fragmented electorate wary of incumbent President Gustavo Petro's low approval amid economic challenges and security concerns. Recent polls, including Guarumo and Ecoanalítica's March 19-25 survey for El Tiempo showing Cepeda at 37.5% ahead of de la Espriella (20.2%) and Valencia (19.9%), underscore the tight dynamics, while Paloma Valencia's dominant 67% victory in the March 8 center-right coalition primary has boosted her momentum and split the right-wing vote. Upcoming debates and regional turnout in battleground areas like Antioquia and Bogotá could tip the balance toward a likely runoff.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slim 49.5% implied probability to Candidate M winning Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, with Iván Cepeda Castro close at 41% and Paloma Valencia at 36.8%, capturing a fragmented electorate wary of incumbent President Gustavo Petro's low approval amid economic challenges and security concerns. Recent polls, including Guarumo and Ecoanalítica's March 19-25 survey for El Tiempo showing Cepeda at 37.5% ahead of de la Espriella (20.2%) and Valencia (19.9%), underscore the tight dynamics, while Paloma Valencia's dominant 67% victory in the March 8 center-right coalition primary has boosted her momentum and split the right-wing vote. Upcoming debates and regional turnout in battleground areas like Antioquia and Bogotá could tip the balance toward a likely runoff.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slim 49.5% implied probability to Candidate M winning Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, with Iván Cepeda Castro close at 41% and Paloma Valencia at 36.8%, capturing a fragmented electorate wary of incumbent President Gustavo Petro's low approval amid economic challenges and security concerns. Recent polls, including Guarumo and Ecoanalítica's March 19-25 survey for El Tiempo showing Cepeda at 37.5% ahead of de la Espriella (20.2%) and Valencia (19.9%), underscore the tight dynamics, while Paloma Valencia's dominant 67% victory in the March 8 center-right coalition primary has boosted her momentum and split the right-wing vote. Upcoming debates and regional turnout in battleground areas like Antioquia and Bogotá could tip the balance toward a likely runoff.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 41%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" has generated $7.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.