Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Mario Enrique Severich a narrow edge at 28% implied probability to win Bolivia's Cochabamba governor election, with Sergio Oliver Rodríguez close behind at 22%, underscoring a fragmented nine-candidate field splitting votes in a first-past-the-post system. Recent local polls from the past week confirm the tight contest, as Severich draws strength from urban voters and Comunidad Ciudadana (CC) backing amid anti-incumbent sentiment against MAS governance, while Rodríguez consolidates rural MAS loyalists tied to Evo Morales' faction. The race remains competitive due to MAS internal divisions and lack of vote consolidation among opposition; separation could come from national endorsements, campaign debates, scandals, or final turnout estimates ahead of the vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para governador de Cochabamba (Bolívia)
Vencedor da eleição para governador de Cochabamba (Bolívia)
Juan Roberth Flores 11.1%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 10.0%
Ruth Alina Peralta 3.2%
Mario Enrique Severich 2.9%
$18,613 Vol.
$18,613 Vol.
Juan Roberth Flores
6%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
22%
Ruth Alina Peralta
3%
Mario Enrique Severich
24%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
2%
Esther Soria Gonzales
2%
Remigio Ancalle
1%
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
1%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
6%
Juan Roberth Flores 11.1%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 10.0%
Ruth Alina Peralta 3.2%
Mario Enrique Severich 2.9%
$18,613 Vol.
$18,613 Vol.
Juan Roberth Flores
6%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
22%
Ruth Alina Peralta
3%
Mario Enrique Severich
24%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
2%
Esther Soria Gonzales
2%
Remigio Ancalle
1%
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
1%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
6%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 20, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Mario Enrique Severich a narrow edge at 28% implied probability to win Bolivia's Cochabamba governor election, with Sergio Oliver Rodríguez close behind at 22%, underscoring a fragmented nine-candidate field splitting votes in a first-past-the-post system. Recent local polls from the past week confirm the tight contest, as Severich draws strength from urban voters and Comunidad Ciudadana (CC) backing amid anti-incumbent sentiment against MAS governance, while Rodríguez consolidates rural MAS loyalists tied to Evo Morales' faction. The race remains competitive due to MAS internal divisions and lack of vote consolidation among opposition; separation could come from national endorsements, campaign debates, scandals, or final turnout estimates ahead of the vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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