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Eleições·Primárias

CA-04 Vencedores da Primária

Market icon
Eleições·Primárias

CA-04 Vencedores da Primária

$10,901 Vol.

2 jun 2026
Polymarket

$10,901 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,431 Vol.

96%

Eric Jones

$2,687 Vol.

91%

Trevor Merrell

$0 Vol.

16%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

8%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

8%

Sharon Brown

$0 Vol.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$698 Vol.

6%

John Wesley Tyler

$457 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's 4th Congressional District nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, 2026, trader consensus favors both leading Democrats—incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—advancing due to a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting votes. Jones, a former venture capitalist emphasizing affordability and economic opportunity, has outraised Thompson through year-end 2025 ($2.59 million vs. $2.04 million receipts) and recently won a local Indivisible Yolo straw poll following a candidate forum. The redrawn district post-Prop 50 approval narrows its D+17 partisan lean slightly but remains safely Democratic, with Thompson's 28-year tenure, bipartisan record, and party endorsements bolstering his position amid historical patterns of split opposition favoring top fundraisers. Low GOP consolidation or unexpected turnout shifts could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,901
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's 4th Congressional District nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, 2026, trader consensus favors both leading Democrats—incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—advancing due to a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting votes. Jones, a former venture capitalist emphasizing affordability and economic opportunity, has outraised Thompson through year-end 2025 ($2.59 million vs. $2.04 million receipts) and recently won a local Indivisible Yolo straw poll following a candidate forum. The redrawn district post-Prop 50 approval narrows its D+17 partisan lean slightly but remains safely Democratic, with Thompson's 28-year tenure, bipartisan record, and party endorsements bolstering his position amid historical patterns of split opposition favoring top fundraisers. Low GOP consolidation or unexpected turnout shifts could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,901
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 91%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" has generated $10.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 91%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.