Trader consensus favors CDU with 48% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl), driven by consistent poll leads of 22-23% in the latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey through early March. AfD trails at 16-17% as second place, boosted by gains from 12.6% in 2023 but facing firewall commitments from CDU; SPD, Linke, and Grüne cluster at 14-17%, weakened by incumbent SPD-Greens-Left minority government's scandals and inefficacy. Recent CDU victories in western state elections, including Chancellor Merz's party's March 22 win displacing SPD after decades, have amplified national momentum and conservative consolidation, while urban fragmentation limits challengers' paths to plurality.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim
Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim
CDU 48%
AfD 20.6%
Linke 12%
Os Verdes 10.2%
$1,749,574 Vol.
$1,749,574 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
48%
AfD
21%
Linke
12%
Os Verdes
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 48%
AfD 20.6%
Linke 12%
Os Verdes 10.2%
$1,749,574 Vol.
$1,749,574 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,924 Vol.
48%
AfD
$1,399,351 Vol.
21%
Linke
$8,144 Vol.
12%
Os Verdes
$23,067 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,762 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,523 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$8,312 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,115 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 48% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl), driven by consistent poll leads of 22-23% in the latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey through early March. AfD trails at 16-17% as second place, boosted by gains from 12.6% in 2023 but facing firewall commitments from CDU; SPD, Linke, and Grüne cluster at 14-17%, weakened by incumbent SPD-Greens-Left minority government's scandals and inefficacy. Recent CDU victories in western state elections, including Chancellor Merz's party's March 22 win displacing SPD after decades, have amplified national momentum and conservative consolidation, while urban fragmentation limits challengers' paths to plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,749,574Data de Término
Sep 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 48% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl), driven by consistent poll leads of 22-23% in the latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey through early March. AfD trails at 16-17% as second place, boosted by gains from 12.6% in 2023 but facing firewall commitments from CDU; SPD, Linke, and Grüne cluster at 14-17%, weakened by incumbent SPD-Greens-Left minority government's scandals and inefficacy. Recent CDU victories in western state elections, including Chancellor Merz's party's March 22 win displacing SPD after decades, have amplified national momentum and conservative consolidation, while urban fragmentation limits challengers' paths to plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,749,574Data de Término
Sep 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 48% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl), driven by consistent poll leads of 22-23% in the latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey through early March. AfD trails at 16-17% as second place, boosted by gains from 12.6% in 2023 but facing firewall commitments from CDU; SPD, Linke, and Grüne cluster at 14-17%, weakened by incumbent SPD-Greens-Left minority government's scandals and inefficacy. Recent CDU victories in western state elections, including Chancellor Merz's party's March 22 win displacing SPD after decades, have amplified national momentum and conservative consolidation, while urban fragmentation limits challengers' paths to plurality.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions