Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the CDU at 49% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent opinion polls from INSA and Infratest dimap through late February showing the party leading at 22% in a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, SPD, Greens, and Die Linke clustered at 14-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition has held steady since 2023, bolstered by the party's recent victory in Rhineland-Palatinate's March 22 state election, ending decades of SPD rule despite AfD gains elsewhere. No new Berlin-specific polls have emerged in the past month, but national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz reinforces the lead, with opposition disunity limiting challengers' paths to plurality.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim
Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim
CDU 49%
AfD 17.9%
Linke 12%
Os Verdes 10.2%
$1,770,699 Vol.
$1,770,699 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
49%
AfD
18%
Linke
12%
Os Verdes
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 49%
AfD 17.9%
Linke 12%
Os Verdes 10.2%
$1,770,699 Vol.
$1,770,699 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,936 Vol.
49%
AfD
$1,424,951 Vol.
18%
Linke
$8,144 Vol.
12%
Os Verdes
$23,067 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,762 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,528 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,312 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,115 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the CDU at 49% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent opinion polls from INSA and Infratest dimap through late February showing the party leading at 22% in a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, SPD, Greens, and Die Linke clustered at 14-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition has held steady since 2023, bolstered by the party's recent victory in Rhineland-Palatinate's March 22 state election, ending decades of SPD rule despite AfD gains elsewhere. No new Berlin-specific polls have emerged in the past month, but national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz reinforces the lead, with opposition disunity limiting challengers' paths to plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,770,699Data de Término
Sep 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the CDU at 49% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent opinion polls from INSA and Infratest dimap through late February showing the party leading at 22% in a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, SPD, Greens, and Die Linke clustered at 14-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition has held steady since 2023, bolstered by the party's recent victory in Rhineland-Palatinate's March 22 state election, ending decades of SPD rule despite AfD gains elsewhere. No new Berlin-specific polls have emerged in the past month, but national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz reinforces the lead, with opposition disunity limiting challengers' paths to plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,770,699Data de Término
Sep 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the CDU at 49% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent opinion polls from INSA and Infratest dimap through late February showing the party leading at 22% in a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, SPD, Greens, and Die Linke clustered at 14-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition has held steady since 2023, bolstered by the party's recent victory in Rhineland-Palatinate's March 22 state election, ending decades of SPD rule despite AfD gains elsewhere. No new Berlin-specific polls have emerged in the past month, but national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz reinforces the lead, with opposition disunity limiting challengers' paths to plurality.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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